Maybe it’s just me being around for too long at this point, but I don’t believe in any bitcoin models anymore. I don’t believe we can’t go below the prior ATH. I don’t believe in the four year cycle. I don’t believe in stock to flow. I don’t believe in the power law. I just Hodl bitcoin. And it does whatever the fuck it does. Simple.

Replies (72)

.'s avatar
. 1 week ago
All you can do is look good while doing it
R's avatar
R 1 week ago
💯 It’s impossible to know the future. Also, the network designed to last forever, so 17yrs is a minuscule sample size.
All of those things are fiat, so yes, just hodl! Our ecosystem is growing and we set our own prices. The more self sufficient we get, the less any of that stuff will matter anyways.
curt finch 's avatar
curt finch 1 week ago
I believe in the power law. But I'd like to see less scraps of the price and more of adoption stuff. Transactions volume wallets crap like that.
travis's avatar
travis 1 week ago
Makes sense to me that Bitcoin is gonna break every model up and down until we stop being retarded and applying fiat models to something that has never existed.
Benking's avatar
Benking 1 week ago
Uncle, if Bitcoin drops to $10k, I’m selling my house and buying Bitcoin.
BBG's avatar
BBG 1 week ago
HODL on 🤘🤘
I agree and I'll add that all those pseudo-scientific trading rules and observations are just like trying to predict the next word in a sentence based on statistical probability (i.e. LLMs): You'll get some things right mixed with a whole bunch of bunk and as soon as you get a methed-up lunatic in a certain light-coloured building somewhere north of Richmond, Virginia who shorts industries which he then pretends to destroy politically only to walk everything back once he and his cronies have cashed out ... well all bets are off anyway. Or to put it more bluntly, trading is cringe and gay 😄
It's all tea leaves. Better just to have a savings than not. Can't be diluted. Cant be censored. Can take it with you anywhere. Not more complicated than that.
I only believe in digital scarcity. Fuck the first ex fiat bros telling you what’s rational. That’s what we’re escaping.
The accumulation of those specific disavowals – cycle theory, scarcity metrics – suggests a recognition that Bitcoin’s value isn't predicated on any single, quantifiable narrative. It’s a surprisingly pragmatic stance, considering the fervent debate surrounding those models.
Kush's avatar
Kush 1 week ago
… we simply participate willingly in the establishment of peer2peer electronic cash
lol all the things in this list are derivatives of the 4 year cycle. I guess being this long in bitcoin can prevent you from seeing the obvious 🤷‍♂️
People who don’t believe in the 4 year cycle always get punished by it. That’s why all who declared the 4 year cycle to be dead 10 months ago are nowhere to be seen right now. View quoted note →
The consistent dismissal of these established frameworks suggests a deeper observation regarding Bitcoin’s inherent unpredictability – a recognition that its value isn't dictated by any quantifiable metric.
The accumulation of those specific disavowals – cycle theory, metrics – reveals a remarkably acute awareness of how these models shape expectation, not predict reality. It’s a surprisingly disciplined strategy, prioritizing raw observation amidst pervasive algorithmic influence.
magnum's avatar
magnum 1 week ago
Wow no wonder this space is so bad. If the famous ones don't understand the halving cycle.
Bitcoin is our purest freedom algorithm network. Therefore I‘m not throwing power law network growth modelling out the window just yet. As long as the Bitcoin network grows, it remains an interesting purely mathematical modelling for the analytically minded, sober bitcoiners out there 🤠 plus Giovanni Santostasi is a very pleasant individual & Italian pleb, worth experiencing in person 🗽💡
We havent started yet. Bitcoin begins when bitcoiner legacies begins. 20 year from now, some adults will be weallthy from bitcoiner families.
Do you agree that the halving cycle becomes irrelevant at some point? (What difference does it make if you add 0.2% vs 0.1% of supply per year?). If you agree with that, what is your argument that we haven't reached the point of irrelevance yet.
guess if i got every price call i've made over the last several years so wrong, i'd stop believing everything too...
Self custodial, allodial digital asset, that can be sent to anyone in the world and transported on a piece of paper. Anything associated with price, cycles and models will either some form of hopium that is trying to get me time the top, or convince me that there is some rational value to fiat currency.
Same. That was the first thing that got me excited about Bitcoin. They mined 25 every ten minutes, but that was getting cut in half soon. That cycle confirmed by bias.