Yep. The people betting on robots for field work have clearly never fought a 40 year-old bolt that refuses to turn.

Much easier for AI to do your taxes than clean your house.

Seems to me that white collar is the first to go

It’s true, the dynamics are much more nuanced than most give credit outside of such labors. I’ve been in construction for over 20 years, it will be very difficult to replace humans in some aspects. In others, like grading, it has already started because lasers and gps are very common in construction now. I remember when we had to use actual hand held maps to find jobs…now we just punch in the address.

When I think about what an electrician has to do (in a home) might involve carpentry in addition to their electrical work. They have to find where wires lead. They might consult with a homeowner regarding the placement of a light fixture or outlet. They clean up after themselves. Seems all very difficult for an AI to navigate.

General Intelligence Software AI is Near General Human Purpose/Ability Hardware is Far Away View quoted note →

As a 4 generation family pool remodeling company I completely agree. You can’t google what we know and every job is different.

There's a reason they kick you off a jobsite if you're drunk. In the trades, ten unskilled hands do not replace one skilled hand. Robots are not only unskilled, but move like they are drunk.

Yes. The only realistic way I can see residential blue collar work being automated is if houses are built specifically to be serviced by robots in the future. As it stands, there is no planet where a robot could service existing homes.

We're 10+ years into robotic vacuum cleaners and they still suck, but in two days from now were going to send a robot to fix the plumbing of your house 👌

Tax is theft, why do people use this as their example? Makes me lose hope for humanity.

Clean up after themselves?! Sparks in England are notoriously the messiest on any building site.

Lol AI will not be able take over my "crew-collar" job until we literally live better than the Jetsons.

Unfortunately AI is not gonna eliminate that particular variety of theft, but will probably allow you to pay less for the indignity.

Not in old (beautiful) housing stock. Maybe new builds on mars if that’s what we’re aiming for.

You think those robots can drink 6-8 beers after work? Doubt it.

Was at a restaurant yesterday, first time I have had a robot deliver food unaccompanied by a human.

True that.

Yep. Try getting a robot to fish wires from a basement to an attic, or cut plaster and lathe without letting the plaster crumble. If you go to school, let it be trade school. Always a shortage there!

Robots won't have an impact anytime soon, but AI will. Anytime something breaks you just feed it into your choice of LLM... it can be diagnosed very easily(and damn accurately from my experience), look at pictures and help you avoid calling a costly repair person.

True. You can break down hard jobs into smaller, easy tasks and those can and will get replaced quicker. Block by block. I’m just curious how fast it’ll go… since honestly, nobody has a fucking clue.

Meanwhile my passion for assisting language learners has me contemplating how I can make my service indispensable and somehow preferable to AI. So far so good, but for 'how long?' I wonder. I'm currently working on diversifying my skill set, just in case.

Machines have been 'replacing' (augmenting) human labor for hundreds of years (eg windmills) and will continue to 'replace' human labor over the next several hundred years

Agree.

I think you're already seeing it with Helix Robots in BMW factories. Repetitive tasks, that don't require ingenuity, can be replaced quicker than for example that robot doing tasks in the house. Primarily cause of the controlled setting. Jobs on factory floors that require managing and using a diverse set of equipment, triaging issues, directing workforce etc, is still years away. White collar jobs are definitely more at risk in the very near term but that too, mostly jobs that are rote, repetitive and task oriented

🎯 Robots are already doing the hard parts. (Back hoes, etc) We're decades (if ever) away from the human elements being replaced.

Ever seen an electrician do basic jobs? What do you think? We are just gonna jump from 0 to building data centers with robots? Baby steps. Put your eyes on the Chinese. It will start there first.

As a wood boi: Cnc can only do the most basic shit. Yr telling me i need a $100k machine and a $80k/yr specialist employee to do what a $70k/yr guy can do alone? That dont math

Pow

As a metal boi : Conc is great for mass production repetition but as soon as you try to do some individualistic difficult welding on a unique piece you faster training an apprentice !

I think vast groups of people are still very disconnected from vast groups of other people.

As a construction consultant I’ve been thinking about this a lot. I’m trying to find ideas to make my job sites as automated as possible. From the work side, but also the client reporting side. I’m also trying to replace people that have jobs that a person probably shouldn’t do long term for reasons of safety, body health, etc… However, as a construction guy, rather than an AI/Robotics guy, I don’t really know where to start. There is a definite need for people like yourself to help us gameplan this intelligently.

AI will also not replace the office work nearly as fast as has been hyped.

LOL , nothing but sellers of fear! All floss and BS!

Currently anything out now or even down the pipeline won't replace blue collar work. We get looked at at expendable but couldn't be further from the truth

This. And Most people who replace or worry about robots replacing jobs don’t actually understand how things work.

There’s already things that can automate home building, such as the brick laying robot or 3D printing concrete. Stick built homes could be partially automated using a factory that builds all the walls, headers, trusses, etc for a build that then gets shipped to the site. The factory part is where this shines as conditions and operational parameters can be better controlled than out in the field. This could satisfy your health and safety aspect too as there is still a need for some people to oversee automated machines to correct issues they may have, and people who are aging out of field work or need light duty can go into the factory as machine operators (assuming the site crews live/work near the factory).

Seems to me that AI is replacing white collar faster than robots are replacing blue collar.

I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise. The fake work white collars do is algorithmic and formulaic. The work blue collars do is complicated, dynamic and situational.

I just hope to have a functional and reliable companion during my old age

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And those people seem to focus more on the disruption when they could be emphasizing the importance of learning how to use these tools. There is no turning back. And more than ever, people need to adapt by being proactive and understanding how these tools can and will be an integral part of everything we do.

HVAC REPAIRMAN IS ALWAYS NEEDED, A ROBOT CANT REPLACE US

lol they can. Repairs wouldn’t be done the traditional way anymore.

Have you worked in HVAC or refrigeration?

Real physical hands on work is extremely nuanced. We struggle to get people to learn how to do those tasks accurately. Robots are really not even close to handling those nuances and variables that take place in the field. I don't doubt it can evolve quickly but at the current state robots are at best assistants to these real people soon the work.

Have you ?

regardless, humans are being pushed to the edge cases of even skilled work. And the ancillary roles are cooked with ai (estimator, project manager, quant surveyor). I would ofc heavily discount a total displacement of skilled labour, but you might be surprised how much manual work will be saturated by the time bots are mass adopted. I would bet on more being expected of a skilled trade for same time/money. Not redundant, just analog difficulty adjustments, permanently. I have anecdotes.

Seriously... I’ve seen people on here looking for jobs, and heard of a lot of general job loss out there. There’s been a shortage of blue collar workers for a looooonnng time and I’m telling you it’s not getting automated anytime soon. Among other things: we need more good welders in general but especially people who can weld stainless. We need more people who are good with miscellaneous & ornamental metals (think stairs, railings, fences, gates, & various non-structural supports…). And we need even more people who can draft the work in CAD + understand the work in the field. You want “fuck you” money? Well these are “fuck you” skills right now. There’s lots of freedom in being a skilled journeyman. View quoted note →

That’s literally my job bby

for 5 years

Then I have to nothing to say that’ll convince you otherwise regarding your stance.

I manage multiple concrete crews and I guarantee these are the LAST jobs getting replaced by robots and AI… 🤣

All I've seen robots do is dance Which is barely interacting with the real world

How are you my friend I am from Yemen and we suffer from wars and problems and my financial situation is very difficult can you help me buy food for my family to eat humanitarian service