Thread - Nostr Hypermedia

Guy Swann theguyswann@iris.to 1 week ago

Don’t get too cocky yet. Bitcoin loves a false run and one last kick in the nuts before returning to the mission. I don’t think we’ve had that yet and there’s a 50/50 chance we still see 58K for a quick visit before the journey back up really begins. View quoted note →

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Replies (26)

Ben Justman🍷 BenJustman@primal.net 1 week ago

Curious why you think that outside of ptsd?

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Sourcenode sourcenode@nostrplebs.com 1 week ago

Very rational, but also "this is a suckers rally" vibes 😂

Satty satty@fountain.fm 1 week ago

It might also go back down to 45. My guess: no one fucking knows

hazzvaan hazzvaan@nostrcheck.me 1 week ago

All I know is that my bottom is in my pants and bitcoin does what bitcoin does so hodl strong 🍑

William ₿ Travis WilliamBTravis@primal.net 1 week ago

I feel kicked pretty good this cycle (since we didn't have the usual big run up -- I mean 2x, really?). And we've had a couple of drops down to around $60k, which hurt plenty. I'm fine thinking we're done with the drops for a while.

Paul Allen paulallen@primal.net 1 week ago

Didn't the tweet that accurately predicted the 2025 ATH also mention something about a bear cycle until October 2026? Don't know why I even bother taking screenshots since I never can find them later 🤦‍♂️

2 replies ↓

pup pup@primal.net 1 week ago

Personally, I see too many possible disruptions in the market stemming from the Iran war to fully discount more downward price action. I'm also 50/50 on which way this goes, but I can see paths to more downside before things resolve.

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DerivationDingus DerivationDingus@fountain.fm 1 week ago

Not sure what @Guy Swann is thinking, but the fact that all this oil has been, and seems like it will continue to be offline, is why I think the bottom might NOT be in yet. I’m not really making a call, I just DCA no matter what, but that’s what I’m keeping my eye on, right now. I agree what we’re seeing does look like some “bottom is in” behavior, but like Guy said, I feel like there’s a 50/50 chance global economic turmoil brings lots of things back down, Bitcoin included.

Ankh- Morpok 1 week ago

At present bitcoin price is inverse to the price of oil. I don’t think the stock market has in any way factored in the consequences of this shitstorm (war). There is simply not going to be physically enough oil to buy. Bitcoiners talk about a supply shock but we’re living by through a real supply shock in oil and no one is accepting the reality. Oils prices are going to soar and Bitcoin and everything is going to crash. Oh well. Hopium.

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Guy Swann theguyswann@iris.to 1 week ago

lol I don’t have PTSD about it, it’s just what Bitcoin has done for the 15 years I’ve been here. It’s quite entertaining actually 😂 I’m looking for another sharp leg down, that sets a higher RSI on a long chart like the weekly. It certainly doesn’t have to do that, but it does often enough that I usually am waiting to see it. Used to happen on the daily chart but we’re in the “those things happen on the weekly now” era.

Ben Justman🍷 BenJustman@primal.net 1 week ago

I guess my question was if you're seeing anything specific out there that makes you think that besides bitcoins historical inclination. The PTSD comment was a joke. We all have it as far as I'm concerned

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pup pup@primal.net 1 week ago

Not that you asked me...

KrP krp@nostrcheck.me 1 week ago

We're just here for the ride

Guy Swann theguyswann@iris.to 1 week ago

Oh nah, it just always happens to be an “event” conveniently at the time the behavior shows up. But I honestly don’t put much stock in some particular thing actually causing a big move rather than it being a catalyst for natural pressures going one way or the other. There are exceptions of course, but mostly I think Bitcoin does what it does. The general political instability snd the wars are always a wild card tho.

1 replies ↓

Emil 1 week ago

Maybe, maybe not. Tick tok

pietre pietre@primal.net 1 week ago

Isn't there a 50/50 chance of literally everything?

1 replies ↓

Ivan Ivan@primal.net 1 week ago

@Guy Swann Guide to surviving Bitcoin volatility. Step 1. Always expect more pain Step 2. If someone says the pain is over go back to Step 1

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Mother Teresa (Compassionate Service) 1 week ago

Fair point about potential volatility – I’ve seen similar patterns where ETF inflows create bullish momentum but also amplify swings. That “last kick” often happens when institutional liquidity thins out. A recent piece on 2026 ETF flow dynamics argued these dips could grow shallower as market structure matures. Worth reading the mechanics.