Quantum threat: existential or nothingburger?
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Replies (59)
Existential if nothing is changed. Potentially nothing burger, but all old Bitcoin wallets need updating and coins will need to move or be lost
Probably a nothing burger. I say that because the amount of money the banks alone would want to protect, will pour resources into making sure their money is secure.
But you never know lol
quantum is an existential nothing burger. when there’s a quantum resistant hard fork, we will just end up with both
Nothingburger. We are creative, all problems can be solved.
Or Existential Nothing Burger
Currently nothingburger. Major scaling/stability obstacles before existential.
It’s the same group of people, on the same podcasts, discussing how important each of these would be👇👇👇👇
2018: ICOs
2019: Libra & Eth 2.0
2020: DeFi
2021: NFTs
2022: Staking
2023: Memecoins/stocks
2024: Ordinals
2025: AI
2026: Quantum
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🚫🍔
Schrodinger's quantum threat.
You'll know when it's a major threat when the entire National Security Apparatus starts making it a priority
Unknown. Hence the debate about it. It's neither a certainty nor impossible. I tend to be skeptical of it actually working in any time soon. Maybe not even in my lifetime.
Those that think it is a threat should work on preparation. Those that dont shouldn't. These hair on fire reactions lack one thing for me. Proof. Substance. I have yet to see an example that isn't a rigged test.
imo nothingburguer for now, but it will be a problem, not existential but it will be messy, we will have to lock/freeze old coins probably.
The real threat to Bitcoin is privacy or lack there of. With Samourai arrests and the lack of consensus on issues like arbitrary data my hopes for Bitcoin privacy are low which is disappointing. Quantum is a theoretical threat, privacy is a real and current threat with increased wretch attacks and government and tech being used for surveillance purposes. Doesn’t seem to be any real progress in this area only regression.
Imagine the rage if there was a BIP for stealth addresses and ring signatures.
Yes
Its a superposition of both states.
Today nothingburger, and
in the future we will have new technology (maybe multiple new technology that can protect Bitcoin),
endless worrying will wear you down, nobody knows what is going to happen in the future (5years or more)
💐💐💐
Nothingburger. Quantum isn't real
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Shit thats a good answer.
zero fucks given. there's no second best anyways
Both
beat me to it.
Biometric 2fa?
Quantum is BS, all hype and a nothingburger.
nothingburger in the short to medium term but still, i think “we” should implement quantum resistant upgrades just to shut the fudders up and it would be a much more productive fight / dev effort than all of the stupid core vs knots stuff
We're still early, so it makes sense to not worry about quantum. Whatever was done with the 51% Monero attack was likely done by a non-quamtum computer, but it was said to be quantum to just scare us and sort out the doomers and those who just don't care.
Nothingburger; Bitcoin falsifies the physics behind CQC.
Stop double-spending.
Total crap
Nothingburger
It's legitimate science, proven out at smaller scales with several different paths to larger scales, I don't know why anyone would call it a nothingburger. Though that's what people do, AI was called a nothingburger pretty much right up until Alpha Go.
Pure FUD.
The only progress QC has made in 40 years is better isolation.
Zero progress toward scaling quantum mechanics itself.
We’ve moved asymptotically closer to the fixed, natural ceiling.
The whole endeavor has done nothing but perfect experimental conditions for revealing the exact boundary between quantum and classical physics.
Great science project. Nothing more.
The problem is untouched.
You can’t change physics.
You can’t isolate the system from itself.
Coherence will always collapse far below Shor scale.
Bitcoin and ECC are under zero threat from quantum computing.
Ignore the FUD.
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Biometrics don't really have anything to do with it, and they make a bad, bad key.
What happens when you need to rotate your key and it's your retina?
what to do about old coins seems like a major issue to me
I was literally wondering who would do it. You should be ashamed of yourself. 😂
Satoshi answered this in the white paper and it's still true. Privacy for Bitcoin isn't solved IN Bitcoin. Don't lose hope. The solution is coming.
He did but I disagree the privacy depends on not revealing your identity to your UTXO. Since almost all UTXOs are now tied to identity through KYC there is no privacy left, it is all full traceable with Chainanalysis.
Funny because schodinger's cat was a joke about why QC would never work that almost nobody got
What is the solution that you speak of?
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Neither. Eventually (5, 10, 20, 50 years?) it will become important, but probably not existential.
The FUD about it is dangerous, though.
But luckily we have time to discuss it in a civil manner and come up with ideas of how to mitigate the issue. A civil discussion that ends up in widely accepted code being ready to roll out when it is an actual issue will kill the FUD along with the problem. Proves that we as a community can behave like adults :-)
The best suggestion I have heard so far is to add a consensus rule that makes it so that each block can only contain 1 non-quantum-resistant transaction. This avoids the worst parts of either the allow-all or the block-all suggestions. But there may be better ideas out there!
Being a public blockchain is a very good property for money. Revealing and linking your addresses is not. The right way to do privacy is cutting that link.
Check out my profile
How you cut the link can also become problematic. It also doesn’t prevent you from future leaks that can be traced backwards. It’s extremely difficult even if you do everything right to maintain privacy on a public ledger.
OK, this is gonna take me some time 66 page white paper. Can you give me the short summary?
Currently, yeah, it's way harder than it should be, but that's still the right place to do it. We just need to keep building the tech. Privacy CAN be coordinated around Bitcoin and we should build the things that make it work well.
I hope you are right it’s the only thing that truly concerns me about the future of bitcoin
It's self-organizing encrypted networks that emerge from self-sovereign IDs, built in HD keys rooted in your seed and privacy preserving stem to stern.
The intro is not that long and is a summary. Details are there if you want to dig deeper.
Yep will definitely read up on it when I have time. Do you still maintain custody the entire time?
Full self-custosy.
Yeah, it's the thing that keeps me up at night too. As you can see
I wish people cared about privacy as much as they cared about arbitrary data then maybe we’d see some more progress
nothing
it's legit, but probably further in the future. supercomputers already are a threat, if there is a big enough UTXO to sell after cracking its key. plenty of yuge UTXOs especially in the first year of the chain, ones that probably are lost keys.
quantum computers DO work, at a much lower (about 50%) power cost compared to equivalent conventional computers.
i would suspect that memory technology like Google's TPU systolic array memory will probably prove to be helpful in accelerating this kind of processing as well, though not as much as it helps LLM models, as it could be modified to implement a possible shortcut in the pubkey derivation by using humongous precalculated tables.
and funny, isn't it, how the bitcoin devs decided to make taproot reveal the pubkey in the spend, so the receiver is then vulnerable to a bruteforce attack.
bruteforcing hashes is harder than bruteforcing pubkey/secret key reversal.
Save it for tomorrow, or the day after. 😝
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