Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up.
So, for like the zillionth time...
The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that:
1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k.
2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action.
3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action.
Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin.
Cheers. 🍻
Replies (31)
I wouldn’t spend so much time and energy on these “bitcoin analysts” 😅 It’s not like they’re getting paid to be right
So, you are saying it's not so over?
Well you can add to that downward pressure. FTX selling client coin to keep the price down.
Nah. Bitcoin power law is more credible
🎯🤝
less
Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up.
So, for like the zillionth time...
The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that:
1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k.
2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action.
3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action.
Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin.
Cheers. 🍻
View quoted note →
So in the coming bull do we 10x off the current base or off what should have been the ATH in 21? (Give me a juicy answer, I’m having a rough day). 🤣
My 4Q 2025 price target remains unchanged and is approximately 8x higher than the current price.
This is obviously just my best guess.
I say 58K
This is a much wiser guess. 😂🤝
I have wondered if the COVID panic and subsequent awareness of BTC actually drove the BTC higher than it would have gone otherwise. Perhaps people had more time to look into Bitcoin. Perhaps realizing that we have been gas-lit for decades. Just wondering, that's all.
That is really unhinged, especially in the Trump loss scenario
"Unhinged" 😂
You're the best, Hans. Don't ever change.
😂
This isn't in opposition to the power law
I would love that so much!
If Kamala wins taxes increase which kills the economy and forces the government to print to cover interest payments. The only way they can hold Bitcoin down in scenario is going after bitcoiners directly. Once they do that, they’ve already lost.
You’re right. My comment wasn’t well thought through. Thanks
I am who I am and will continue to be who I am, until the day I have some better alternative at hand, which I find improbable to happen. in this life, at least
Thanks Jeff
Also explains why we hit a new ATH before the halving since it wasn’t the ‘real’ top of 2021.
I can tell you I was a product of this. Bitcoin was somehow invisible to me prior to late 2020. Never heard of it. Bought my first BTC in Feb 2021 after Breedlove’s Saylor Series helped me get it right away. Hit me like a bolt of lightning. 10,000 hours down the rabbit hole later I’m forever changed.
EXACTLY! Thank you.
Spot on!
I often think this too. There were also a lot of stimmy cheques going around then too.
Precisely. 🤝
Where does that put this cycle top?
You are as always a clear voice in the fog of fud
@less thank you for your insight and helping to keep me on the straight and narrow path 🫡
🤝
Do you see any indication that China will unban BTC?
This was my story. Co-workers talking about crypto and slow work schedule due to COVID silliness gave me time to start down the crypto rabbit hole. I quickly decided I was a bitcoin maximalist.
My contrarian view is that BTC price action of the last 4 years and going forward has a lot more to do with major events (Covid, FTX, ETFs, etc)
Whatever the next major event is will have a lot more impact on price than the old halving cycles.
