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Some guesses for 2026: 1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%... 2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation... 3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield curve to rise towards and above 5%... 4. Which will be unacceptable to Wall Street and the current administration... 5. Which will induce the Fed to begin yield curve control... 6. Which will cause material weakness in the US dollar... 7. Which will lead to further currency debasement... 8. Which will become fodder for large increases and volatility across risk assets.

Don't miss the significance of the secular shift that began (again) in January 2022. TL;DR The world has shifted away from US-centric Proof of Stake Financialization and towards Global Proof of Work Industrialization. Ignore this shift (and its investment/savings implications) at your own risk.

Rather than peaking in 4Q 2025--as I had previously anticipated--important macro assets are actually showing signs of major cyclical bottoms at current levels. In my opinion, the anticipated bear market for certain assets and sectors has been pulled forward into 2025... and 2026 looks surprisingly bullish based on the relevant macro and technical data points that I closely follow. In light of this, I will be re-opening my small (award winning) friends and family macro-oriented, Bitcoin-friendly, multi-strategy hedge fund to appropriate HNWIs who share a long-term investment time horizon with me. Per US regulators, Limited Partnerships in the hedge fund are only available to (verifiable) Accredited Investors and Qualified Clients. If you are seriously interested in joining me in the hedge fund--and you meet the above-mentioned criteria--feel free to send me a DM. Cheers.

You may think that you own your dollars or other fiat assets, but the government actually owns your purchasing power.

Applying logic to exponential growth over a long enough timeframe will make you look insane by the vast majority of people.

What I'm watching... 👀 Priced in gold, the last time MSTR was as oversold (in RSI terms) on the weekly charts as it is today was during the deep valley of the flash Covid recession in March of 2020 (see vertical green lines). At that harrowing time, MSTR reached as low as $9 per share. For a long-term investor, this may be a proverbial "blood in the streets" moment for MSTR shareholders. Not investment advice... but interesting to note. Thoughts?

Once (if) the government shutdown ends, Fed Net Liquidity will become relevant and sexy again. Until then, the Liquidity Blob remains stuck in the Fed’s and Treasury’s back pockets. When (if) the shutdown ends, the Liquidity Blob will finally and mercifully begin shifting back to the people and the public markets. This shift should quickly be reflected in the fiat price of #bitcoin. GM.

The two most important (and generally overlooked) factors in determining (guessing) bitcoin's fiat price action over the coming quarters are: 1. Chinese liquidity 2. American manufacturing I expect both to accelerate... materially. Just my guess. You do you.

Regarding the much discussed coming Age of Abundance… Universal basic services (UBS) would be much wiser and more beneficial for humanity than universal basic income (UBI). UBS examples may include widely available: - Clean water - Electricity - Bandwidth - Safe roads and bridges - Food - Housing - etc. Discuss. #AI #Robotics #UBS #UBI

The Revolution isn't coming... it's already here. After an ~80 year run of the post-WW2 system, the much-anticipated global geopolitical, monetary/financial, and societal reordering is well-underway. Remember that great societies are built on proof of work and die on proof of stake. Keep your eyes open and adapt accordingly.

If you love someone, teach them about purchasing power.

Another fun quarterly Mastermind discussion with nostr:nprofile1qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcp2amhxue69uhkv6tvw3jhytnwdaehgu3wwa5kuef0dec82c33wv6hjufkwaskgamj0pjx2drvdpn8xdfkvahrvdrgwaa826rwvesnvu3ed44rgdekwg6hxdrgdd6ku7n80fchyuekwymh5qpqs5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqjx5gu2 , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqtxwaehxw309anxjmr5v4ezumn0wd68ytnhd9hx2tmwwp6kyvtjw3k8zcmp8pervct409shwdtwx45rxmp4xseryerdx3ehy7f4v3axvet9xsmrjdnxw9jnsuekw9nh2ertwvmkg6n5veen7cnjdaskgcmpwd6r6arjw4jsqgq6lcx8fc7h0p8t4ya9u0a92jnwavqe9rgjwwdw3wjgxfuxsz8rd5mths8c , nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7cnfw33k76twd4shs6tdv9kxjum5wvhx7mnvd9hx2qgvwaehxw309a38yc3wd9hsqgypghst3pwjamjlsnxclc2vmtvz7g33sde3ge5wm7knuz9nhmfwwvt69pq8 , and myself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut8keXlTyjw

500 years of Western imperialism is actively winding down. Adjust accordingly.

The US has long weaponized the US dollar against its adversaries (including China). China is now starting to weaponize the global manufacturing and supply chain against its adversaries (including the US). This won’t end well for the US dollar’s multi-decade hegemony and status quo of the West’s geopolitical “elites.” Consider owning some bitcoin and gold while the debasement of the dollar accelerates over the coming 5-15 years.

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times. GM

I generally despise politics and am neither a Republican or Democrat, but somebody needs to lay it out: A Revolution--likely violent--is coming soon. Income inequality in the US--and around the world--is reaching catastrophic proportions. History says that this discrepancy in income and living standards is strongly correlated with Revolutions... usually bloody. If the Ruling Elite and Billionaire Class don't address this developing situation with practical solutions in the near-term, then (I predict, based on historical precedent) that this will NOT end well for said Elites. The current monetary and financial system has reached a breaking point and, if it is not proactively fixed, it will eventually be overthrown. One clear example of the obnoxious and increasingly intolerable inequality is in the CEO-to-Worker compensation ratio (see graph). Hope in the future of America is fading... and many lower income Americans are growing desperate. In light of this and many other large (and widening) discrepancies, here are Five Fixes for the Ruling Elite and Billionaire Class to strongly consider (and quickly implement): 1. C-suite executives at all public and private US companies should immediately institute policies to lower their compensation packages and/or raise their Workers' compensation packages, in order to reach a CEO-to-Worker ratio of 30-to-1, or less. 2. Though long considered "untouchable," Social Security needs to be intelligently adjusted. I know many wealthy American seniors who neither need nor even want to receive Social Security payments, and would actually be relieved if their payments went instead to their fellow Americans who are suffering financially. -- SOLUTION: Immediately phase-out Social Security payments to senior Americans in the highest income deciles and transfer these same payments to younger Americans in the lowest income deciles. 3. A progressive (income-based) student debt jubilee. -- While I believe strongly in general debt repayment obligations, many recent college graduates are straddled with large levels of debt while available jobs are vanishing. Negative income and a negative net worth cannot be survived for long, as even basic food and shelter needs become out of reach. This becomes an impossible situation to navigate... eventually leading to desperate (likely violent) actions. -- Such hopelessness and aggression are already manifest in high and rising rates of drug and alcohol usage, riots, suicide, and homicide. 4. Disincentivize ownership of multiple homes. -- Many younger Americans are simply priced out of home ownership, while many older Americans own two or more homes. This discrepancy is increasingly insufferable to younger Americans. -- SOLUTION: Americans can easily be disincentivized to own more than one home through tax policy. Doing so would cause many older Americans to try to sell their additional homes, increasing market supply, and decreasing prices to a reasonable level. 5. Increase the progressive Death Tax for the ultra-wealthy. -- Allow entrepreneurial Billionaires and (soon) Trillionaires to enjoy the fruits of their labors while they are alive, but then let the living standards of all Americans be raised upon their passing. Multi-generational family dynasties are over-rated and generally unproductive. -- SOLUTION: Directly transfer progressive Death Tax proceeds to lower income Americans. Make these transfer payments open-source, so everyone can watch the benefits of the inventive and industrious citizens accrue to all Americans. -------- Finally, I believe that the coming Age of AI and Robotics will only accelerate the above-mentioned trends and accentuate the need for shrewd and well-timed solutions. It is time for the Ruling Elite and Billionaire Class to act while they still can, or (as history shows) the Worker Class will rise up and do the dirty work for them.

I wonder why the United States federal government is showing so much interest in Venezuela (and its neighbors) lately? Hmm... 🤔

Make the Working Class Great Again. Seriously. We need to do this before America falls over the precipice. 🇺🇸 🧡

ICYMI An informative Why Are We Bullish? live stream with: nostr:nprofile1qyvhwue69uhkyat8d4skutndva6hjtnwv46r5dpcxsuqz9nhwden5te0vfjhgcfwdehhxarjd9kzucmpd5qzqxvfqd89dw8kqmrjfaz6zt8gfggcg93p4tm3s2slv4jrszuugfmt74rjkj nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyrtl8gkckam5xwfxugu46v2e3yhgg70gwx5qpeqp7prlkz9dzlejkvg2vts Jesse Myers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkTl8c6gfzg&t=900s

I don’t care who you voted for. The only legitimate fix is the separation of money and state. This remains the fight of our generation. Don’t lose sight… or hope. Bitcoin is money of the people, by the people, for the people.