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Dr. Jeff
DrJeff@primal.net
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I'm mostly on Substack these days, writing Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook... come find me there! https://jeffross191961.substack.com - Macro - Charts - Geopolitics - Random musings - Sometimes funny - Occasional doom and gloom - Fund management insights - Never individual investment advice ** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund **
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DrJeff 1 week ago
Issue #7 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀 But Seriously... What Is Your Home Actually Worth? Your home is up 68.7% in dollar terms over the past decade. Congratulations! But what if you measured it in something that cannot be printed? Down -51.7% in gold terms. Down -98.5% in Bitcoin terms. Same asset. Three measuring sticks. Three completely different realities. Also in this issue: → The 2-year Treasury yield is rising again... is "higher for longer" a constraint, not a choice? → Bitcoin update: what started as a bear flag has morphed into a bullish ascending channel. But the 200-day SMA remains undefeated. → SPX/Gold updated: a bounce reminiscent of Q4 1972. Time will tell. → Your friendly neighborhood physician on resistance training and why the scale is lying to you "Great nations are built on proof of work. And they die on proof of stake." Read it here: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/but-seriously-what-is-your-home-actually Not investment advice. Not medical advice. Just a curious observer sharing what is on his charts.
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DrJeff 1 week ago
Shout out to the “Engineered Crisis”… …and to the governments who both create and take advantage of them. Forced commodity supply shock ➡️ Rising inflation ➡️ Rising government bond yields to intolerable levels ➡️ “Forced” yield curve control to “save” the bond market ➡️ Acceleration of currency debasement ➡️ etc., etc.
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DrJeff 3 weeks ago
Issue #6 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀 The Other Side of the Storm I have a confession: I have been spending too much time in the doom loop. This issue is different. → AI is augmenting workers, not replacing them -- the data says so → US unemployment near historic lows despite decades of automation fears → S&P 500 earnings growing at 18-22% -- the AI productivity story is real → Bitcoin priced in gold: strikingly similar to the Dec. 2022 bottom → Bitcoin short-term: bearish ascending channel resolved to the upside, now knocking on the 200-day SMA → Silver: third test of upper boundary resolved to the upside THIS MORNING "Great nations and economies are built on proof of work. And they die on proof of stake." Plus: proof of work nutrition. Yes, really. Not investment advice. Not medical advice. Just a curious observer sharing what is on his charts. Read it here:
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DrJeff 1 month ago
Issue #5 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀 Signals Converging Four independent frameworks. One directional message. → The US dollar reclaims its 200-day SMA -- bullish near-term, complicated long-term → Bitcoin forming a second bear flag -- with liquidity confirming the warning → Michael Howell's GLI suggests lower crypto prices over the coming 13 weeks → Brent Crude is a coiled spring -- the geopolitical wildcard nobody is pricing correctly → NASDAQ/Gold: a 40-year pattern that has repeated twice is repeating again The window for clear thinking may be shorter than most people realize. Read it here: Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.
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DrJeff 1 month ago
Just dropped! I had a great conversation with @Danny Knowles on the latest What Bitcoin Did show. Check it out and let me know your thoughts. 🔥 And don’t forget to zap Danny for his tireless efforts and excellent interviews! ⚡️
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DrJeff 1 month ago
We are all military analysts now.
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DrJeff 1 month ago
lol… so many people and market participants reading/watching mainstream media think the war in the Middle East is basically over. Things about to get real in the coming days. Geopolitical and financial reorganization is just getting started. #FourthTurning vibes
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DrJeff 1 month ago
Issue #4 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀 What Are You Measuring Your Wealth In? → S&P 500 Total Return: +286% in dollars. +0.17% in gold. -97.59% in Bitcoin. → Oil tells the same story — even hard assets fail the sound money test → Why central banks are quietly abandoning the dollar measuring stick → SPX/Gold at 1.43 — the 100-year view, updated → A bonus health observation from your friendly neighborhood physician 😄 The dollar is a shrinking ruler. Here's what the charts look like when you use a better one. Read it here: Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.
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DrJeff 2 months ago
It’s been awhile. Who’s getting ready for yet another #58kGang party?!? 🥳