Replies (49)

IMHO: no way 58k is the bottom; it will be somewhere near 100k, maybe not for sure this cycle, but for sure for the next one
I REMEMBER LAUGHING ON TWATTER AT THE FOLKS CALLING 12K. IT WENT TO 16K AND THEY SAT ON THEIR ASSES & CALLED US STUPID WHILE WE STACKED GENERATIONAL WEALTH. OOPSY!
SoapMiner's avatar
SoapMiner 5 months ago
They'll get it at the price they deserve 🀷
lonecoiner's avatar
lonecoiner 5 months ago
58k will be to the next bear as 10k was to the last. Many will wait for it, but it will never come.
Do you agree with @ODELL that we are currently in a bull cycle? 2021 top was 68k. We are at 108k over 4 years later. Roughly a 50% gain over 4 years. Ok. Not bad. Decent. Just edging out inflation which is a positive! Not a fucking bull cycle by any metric though. Or are we doing copium math where we measure from the absolute bottom and the flash crash wick downs?
We used to say that one day, bitcoin will move more like the stock market as larger players enter and they rebalance allocations. Longer grinds up, less frenzy. We might well be there. I'm not an investor or trader of any consequence. I'm just an average Joe, so I reserve the right to change my mind whenever I like πŸ˜‚
Not until after you see things get really crazy which I don’t even think we’ve seen much of yet. Let’s say we’re at 5% I wouldn’t expect it until 12-18 months after we’ve hit 100% on this bubble
There isn’t one. The power law model just projects the trend line (fair price), understanding that it can be below or above depending on market conditions (bull vs bear market). The bottom price is an estimate that Giovanni created from historical data, which has held up really well. I think the only time it went below it momentarily was in March 2020. As for movements above the trend line, it’s really educated guesses based on previous bull phases’ standard deviation moves.
Burgemeester's avatar
Burgemeester 5 months ago
the inflow of institutional and biz money is so great that they will buy everything which declined more than 30% in 2025. A bear market of 65-75% down is not likely.
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