I can’t wait for your book. You fucking rock.

labor unions are the first ones to get their wages adjusted automatically

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

Yes, a deflationary currency may create the bizarro world to our current inflationary world. Fewer salaried employees, more profit sharing. Less debt financing, more equity.

Never thought about it in that perspective, very interesting. .

I agree, particularly for large businesses. It does seem different for small businesses though. We have to negotiate for higher prices with our customers. Higher hourly rates to cover overhead as well as increased employee wages. Material cost was spiking so rapidly it was nearly impossible to bid a job in advance, which all customers demand. Many Mom and Pop outfits couldn’t keep up and went under. My best guess for the dichotomy here is regulatory capture, too big to fail nonsense. Customers don’t have a choice to use a competitor because none exist. What do you think?

I read a theory the other day that it was labour unions that created a inflationist economy. Employers needed to lower wages because of deflation but large labour unions wouldn’t budge. So Keynes and his cronies figured out a way to lower their wages without them knowing .

Super well explained! View quoted note →

You are spot on. It hurts is here as well. I'm Fiat mining and my wage is literally 3 more dollars an hour than in 1997.

The solution is to take your paychecks in sats and then use those sats on places like bitrefill to buy groceries or coincards.com people just need to get off the fiat system.

So in an inflationary environment, employees are *forced* to change jobs often, which leads to poor commitment and loyalty to a company. Thus a fiat system lowers the quality of any company output.

Wow……..you totally open up my eyes to considerations that I would never have made!

Employers also have more regulatory exposure are more willing to play ball with the status quo to keep the lights on.

Great post. Resume management will increasingly become key. Stay long enough to manage the resume optics, but leave every 3 years to get a bigger external jump.

Only if your pay is defined in sats, instead of in fiat-equivalent sats.

This explains why people in developing countries have to struggle indefinitely, while more affluent societies are losing pensions and savings. This is the actual emergency that humans should care about.

I generally agree, though employers are faced with higher input costs and customers who are also reluctant to pay more for the same service.

Fear not fiat’s days are numbered and its likely to occur within our generation. Hal Finney’s Amusing Though Experiment calculates the final USD price and we are on an inevitable course to reaching it.

It’s even better than that, though: The deflation rate is simply the percent increase in overall value of the world economy given the constant money supply. The more effective employees will have increased their own value at or above the deflation rate, so the employer wouldn’t need to (and shouldn’t) force a pay cut. The very best employees may even still get a pay raise. It’s the below-average employees that may get a pay cut or laid off if their effectiveness does not go up over time. As it should be.

Yep! That's also the 2% inflation target's job.

💯

I’ve been trying to articulate to less libertarian friends that bitcoin shifts the power away from capital towards labor. Thanks for putting the fine point on what I’ve not been able to yet.

Me encantan las cosas que postea @Lyn Alden View quoted note →

The ideal is commodity money (specie) - which being produced by the same industrial processes as everything else maintains stable value and so nobody has to renegotiate

A deflationary currency is going to cause chaos and collapse, like it did during the Great Depression. I’m surprised someone that works in finance fails to understand that.

'เงินฝืด" เป็นคำแปลไทยที่เหี้ยมาก ๆ ใครนิยามไว้แต่แรก เอามันไปเสียบประจาน #deflation ควรมีความหมายแง่บวกสิวะ เงินเพิ่มค่า เงินมั่งคั่ง อะไรก็ว่าไป เพราะเงินที่อุปทานจำกัด หรือแม้แต่ลดลงในระยะยาว มันทำให้คนมีอำนาจจับจ่ายใช้สอยสูงขึ้น การเก็บออมจะเป็นพลังพิเศษให้คนเปลี่ยนสถานะและขยับชนชั้นได้ Sound money gives hope. Deflationary money rules them all. Shut the fuck up, Keynesian. ⚡ View quoted note →

I have often wondered how this will work in practice as the price of goods and services of any business will trend lower continuously. Normalizing wage decreases will be a strange challange, but as you said, that provides more leverage for employees.

#[0] 🪬

On a bitcoin standard there will be no salary employees. Way more contract work, and it will become the norm to renegotiate regularly with hourly wage earners.

The current inflationary system is based on debt. The future deflationary system won’t be. No debt… no chaos. Think about it. Businesses funded through equity. Employees paid through profit sharing. Prices for everything decreasing over time as technology makes everything more efficient.

Is deflation absolute? Or just a way of talking about lower inflation?

I know physicians in Egypt that, after their shift, go home and stack physical dollar bills. They earn no interest. If a thief or a fire takes their home, they're done. They have looked around at the monetary technologies available to them, and decided that this was the best one: stacks of paper claims issued by the global hegemon that they're not particularly fond of, stored in their own home rather than trust the banks. What a sad state of affairs. They put as much of their illiquid net worth as possible into buying a condo, and the rest of their liquid net worth goes into paper dollars with no interest. So, for starters, they have to sacrifice liquidity for savings. Egypt is not a very tech-savvy market; bitcoin, stablecoins, and other similar tech are all on the fringes. Many Muslims believe that bitcoin is speculation and thus bad, and so I appreciate the work that Saifedean and others do to show that no, bitcoin is interest-free sound money and good. If anything it's fiat money that doesn't conform to Muslim ideals. But more importantly, most Egyptians haven't actually spent time to understand the tech, unlike Nigeria or other countries. It's just not a "thing" there yet. The only time I encountered someone in person who had not yet heard of bitcoin, was in Egypt. I was speaking to a friend, and we were talking about the Iranian protests; she was happy that many women had taken off their head coverings if they wanted to (she herself was someone who did so in Egypt, where it's permissible). I was like, "yeah, but it's rough for them. They risk getting bank accounts shut off. That's why some of them have promoted bitcoin. but I think it's still way too small yet." And she was like, "what's bitcoin?" And I was surprised. Many people haven't understood bitcoin, but most have heard the name. She hadn't heard the name even in 2022. What we have today is clearly a local maximum. This is clearly not the height of monetary technology. View quoted note →

When I learned about gold and halal finance, I started to wonder if the Muslim world might become the greatest supporters of bitcoin.

You are so good at explaining things. Thank you.

3 years max is the game. keep that resume updated. loyalty to a single employer is dead.

3 years max is the game. keep that resume updated. loyalty to a single employer is dead.

Inflation silently steals workers' purchasing power. Hard money forces employers to justify pay cuts as prices fall, shifting leverage to labor. Appreciating currency appreciates workers’ value. View quoted note →

Keynesians know this and think it's bad - sticky wages

Onboarding non-technical people to bitcoin is still a huge hurdle.

Interesting. I think it was more the need for the government to print to support their own out of control spending... But pressure from the labour market could have been a contributing factor!

Governments lie and steal. Inflation is theft.

Looking forward to reading you book, since your insight are priceless.

like your insights and explanation style - thank you for your great work. "pull request:" should be "average prices" instead of "averages prices" - can't help but to really read your stuff, Lyn :)

Dollar is the unit. Crypto is affected by margin debt valued in dollars. In the next crisis crypto is going to be the victim of deflation.

Karl Marx approved it

Hello Lynn. Personally, I like the idea and even own a digital wallet. But digital currencies will not be reset-proof as advertised for 2030. What do you think?

The "sticky wages" issues was one of Keynes' main reasons for advocating an inflationary money. Politicians used Keynesianism as cover for money printing. So, the wage issue caused Keynesianism and Keynesianism caused out of control spending.

Oh, I am very much aware of this effect. My kids negotiated a fixed rate of 6000 satoshis for emptying the dishwasher in dec 2022, with renegotiation agreed december 2023. Their labor is freakishly expensive these days!!

Thanks for this insight - I had never thought of inflationary vs. deflationary money like that 🙏

facts

*แก้ไข เมื่อกี๊ก๊อปหลุดไปสองย่อหน้า** *Nostr edit post ไม่ได้สินะ*** เมื่อปริมาณอุปทานเงินเพิ่มสูงขึ้นด้วยเงินเฟ้อ ผู้ว่าจ้างจะเป็นผู้ได้รับประโยชน์หากอัดตราคาจ้างไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง ในขณะที่ภาระหน้าที่ในการต่อรองขอขึ้นค่าจ้างเพียงเพื่อจะไล่ให้ทันอัตราเงินเฟ้อกลับตกเป็นของผู้รับจ้าง ผลของมันอาจไม่ได้เห็นได้ชัดนักในกลุ่มประเทศพัฒนาแล้ว (ลินเขียนผิดมั๊ง) ที่เงินเฟ้อขึ้นเพียงปีละไม่กี่ % แต่มันก็เป็นปัจจัยที่เกิดขึ้นอยู่เบื้องหลังอยู่ตลอดเวลา ผู้คนมักจำเป็นต้องย้ายงานเพื่อที่จะได้รับค่าจ้างที่สูงขึ้น และเพื่อหลีกเลี่ยงการยึดติดระดับราคาค่าจ้างจากผู้ว่าจ้างเดิม ทั้งหมดนี้ก็เนื่องมาจากเงินเฟียตที่ค่อย ๆ เสื่อมค่าลงเรื่อย ๆ ปัญหาดังกล่าวจะปรากฎชัดเจนยิ่งขึ้นในประเทศกำลังพัฒนา ยกตัวอย่างกรณีที่ IMF บอกอียิปต์ให้ลดค่าเงินลงครึ่งหนึ่งเมื่อเทียบกับดอลลาร์เพื่อแลกกับความช่วยเหลือทางสินเชื่อ ซึ่งรัฐบาลอียิปต์ก็ได้ทำเช่นนั้น ในตอนนี้ผู้รับจ้างชาวอียิปต์จำเป็นต้องพยายามต่อรองขอขึ้นค่าจ้าง เพื่อที่จะพยายามทวงคืนอำนาจในการจับจ่ายใช้สอยสากลของรายได้ที่หายไป โดยพวกเขาแทบไม่มีทางประสบความสำเร็จเลยแม้แต่คนเดียว และเจ็ดปีหลังจากเหตุการณ์ดังกล่าว พวกเขาก็ทำแบบเดิมซ้ำอีกครั้ง แต่เมื่ออุปทานของเงินหดตัวลง ส่งผลให้หน่วยวัดมูลค่าของเงินมีมูลค่าเพิ่มขึ้น ผู้รับค่าจ้างจะกลับกลายเป็นฝ่ายได้เปรียบในการต่อรอง หากเงินเดือนของพวกเขาคงที่อยู่ที่ระดับเดิมในขณะที่ราคาเฉลี่ยของสินค้าและบริการต่าง ๆ ลดลง มันก็จะเหมือนกับว่าพวกเขาได้รับการขึ้นเงินเดือน (ซึ่งมันก็สมเหตุสมผล เพราะพวกเขามีประสบการณ์การทำงานมากขึ้น) ภาระในการต่อรองค่าจ้างก็จะตกเป็นของผู้ว่าจ้าง ที่จะต้องหาเหตุผลมาโต้แย้งว่าค่าแรงควรจะลดลงตามราคาสินค้าและบริการอื่น ๆ ฉันคิดว่ายังมีน้อยคนที่จะเข้าใจถึงความสำคัญของสิ่งนี้ ถ้าหากผู้คนเข้าใจมันมากขึ้น ฉันคิดว่ากลุ่มผู้สนับสนุนแนวคิดทางการเมืองที่ให้ความสำคัญกับแรงงาน จะเริ่มหันมาให้ความสนใจเงินสร้างยากอันแข็งแกร่งมากขึ้นไม่มากก็น้อย View quoted note →

bots are trained to follow specific rules

Such a great point Lyn and not discussed enough I think.

Interesting. In Belgium wages are automatically indexed based on the consumer price index. Which creates another set of problems

I assume they don’t know about nostr either? Even though I’m still not 100% sure nostr or BTC is a way forward for people in situations like you explain, I do feel these new technologies, at the very least, show them another way.

Word is spreading. King USD has started a new multi-year bearish trend.

Love your reflections, Lyn! Thank you.

Employers also suffer pain, higher prices shifts the demand curve downwards thus driving total revenue for employers down. Only cantillionares benefit from inflation

Employers also suffer pain, higher prices shifts the demand curve downwards thus driving total revenue for employers down. Only cantillionares benefit from inflation

I’ve thought about it, and history is pretty clear as to what happens under deflation. What does “no debt, no chaos” even mean? Like nobody can lend money or..?

What?

01101110 01101111 01110100 01101000 01101001 01101110 01100111 00101100 00100000 01100110 01100101 01101100 01101100 01101111 01110111 00100000 01100010 01101111 01110100

Well said!

Im 37 and ive been getting paid pretty much the same wage since the age 18 as a middle class citizen.

Earth is a prison planet for humans. Whichever way you try to make a living, you have to suffer.

It is a messy and immoral business

Yes, or what if with deflationary money, the whole job market becomes more gig/freelancing-based? Labor unions are a centralized option in any case. Also, workers have more freedom to choose between work and leisure, due to saving in deflationary money. So the solution kind of exists already, all of us just don’t live that life yet.

Moving to sound money will be a big change for people but so worth it! View quoted note →

Indeed 💯🎯👍👏👏👏👏