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Years ago I read the most popular normie investor book, the intelligent investor, and it talks about calculating fair value. Once you get that, you basically buy at prices below that for the companies you’ve determined are good. I remember looking up all kinds of calculators that do the math for you but all the calculators did it differently. So I never got the same numbers. I ended up just doing the math myself and I found out that literally ALL the relevant stocks were overvalued. That explains why all the calculators online were inconsistent. They started changing the formula because the original formula was useless. In fiat world, when the math isn’t mathing, you change the math rules lmao. Markets have been broken for a long time. The numbers make no fucking sense if you don’t understand the fed.

Value investing is over. They got wiped out. New advice—buy the mag 7 and nothing else. Ride the hype train with everyone else. Stonks, amirite.

I’m just gonna stack sats and ammo

I didn't conclude the same, graham puts a bit too much emphasis on tangible book, but software is intangible and arguably much more valuable (ie would your other own a car factory or YouTube?). These days for sure things are overvalued but I think there have been many instances where tech has a fair price. Also many other markets (Canada, Japan) have fairly priced securities imo

I don’t know how many more, but they’re happening more and more frequently every day.

The markets in my town make sense, maybe because I know how hard the other people work to make it happen. Now, if you’re talking about stock markets….

Markets are efficient at distributing scarce resources. They are the best at it, that is why we consider it efficient.

He calculates the fair value based on assets, P/E ratios, and other factors. It’s not really about tech vs other industries. It’s all overvalued and been that way for years because of inflation. Because people are using stocks as a store of value instead of investment.

As long as interventionism and money printing exists, bubbles will keep happening

Bubbles have been happening well before fiat. So long as greed and fear exist it will keep happening

Money printing is not the only factor, at long as the state keeps interfering with three market those things will keep happening

I remember reading books that used PE ratios. About 15 years ago, I came to the conclusion that this method didn't work anymore so I began looking for alternatives.

You'll also notice in every new edition of the intelligent investor, he updated the models, because they always got invalidated in the following decade.

Didn't notice that but there's no other way.

Have you seen what goes on in our schools and universities? Explains a lot.

markets work just fine. its retarded humans and the herd mentality thats the problem. that and greed for a quick profit. its the market that cirrects for that and idiots lose their shirt.

Yeah there's this weird thing where it's like the "real" economy, the stores near you, housing costs, etc, obey basically "supply and demand" and operate more or less efficiently.... But once you get to the top of the stock market, AI is just this big sucking black hole that sweeps in everything.

Sure, but it's much more limited without "the printer," because you're talking about purely private-credit-fueled bubbles...

You need commodities for efficient markets. That's why all companies try to avoid letting their product become a commodity.

They're inefficient, but there is a massive prisoner's dillema that forces anyone under a certain size to go with the crowd. Which is why we need to build hashrate liquidity networks with bitcoin.

Mike Green has some good work on the effect of index rebalancing events.

I don't think anyone who's a moderate student of markets thinks this is normal or healthy

The market is broken because they pumped more liquidity into the system than possible for it to absorb. The reason P/E is a broken indicator is because companies perform stock buybacks to artificially increase short term performance to appease investors. Value investing unfortunately does not work in the current market since we are in state like before The Great Depression, Roaring 20s (Part 2). People are hyping up stocks like Tesla to gamble, and speculate, the market is irrational. But this is seen across various assets. Most stocks like Nvidia, etc. are slightly overvalued, so is Bitcoin, etc. Very few assets are fairly priced, and even less are undervalued. The market will never be truly rational as humans ourselves are not truly rational.