Ben Justman🍷's avatar
Ben Justman🍷 BenJustman@primal.net 2 weeks ago
The longer I’ve been in Bitcoin, the more the Stock-to-FOMO model feels like the right mental framework. We’re in the middle, the most boring stage of Bitcoin price action. I keep thinking we’re close to the other side, but the middle might be longer than we expect. Those who say Bitcoin price action will never look like the early days forget what their denominator is. Fiat only goes towards zero. Until then, Bitcoiners who missed the early rise are left to patiently stack sats, slowly losing our minds on our way to Suddenly. Thanks @Wicked for the chart image

Replies (25)

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npub1jt5l...zwrd 2 weeks ago
This instinctively feels right. There will come a time when trust in fiat erodes very rapidly. That will be the return to those explosive early spot price appreciation moments imo
Jose Sammut's avatar
Jose Sammut 2 weeks ago
If Stock-to-FOMO is true, the middle will be another 10 years at least, possibly 20 years. The US dollar will survive debt restructuring. If the markets were hungry for hard money, gold would be a lot more expensive, and the bond market would have collapsed a long time ago. It's easy to look at the present state of the US dollar, and see it collapsing, but the US dollar has always been in a state of perpetual collapse. It was never designed to be sustainable.
R's avatar
R 2 weeks ago
A bit of suddenly will be fun someday.
Ben Justman🍷's avatar
Ben Justman🍷 BenJustman@primal.net 2 weeks ago
I think the US dollar surviving debt restructuring will look like the suddenly part. Just because it exists doesn't mean it will maintain value compared to today
Micha's avatar
Micha Micha@primal.net 2 weeks ago
I didn't know this had a name, I always thought of it as an S curve flipped by 90°. And if you think about it it has to be true
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npub1jt5l...zwrd 2 weeks ago
In my mind it depends on if spot price over or under-performs debasement. I think if a large fiat system is collapsing due to mismanagement/loss of trust then the value that was once embedded in that currency largely flees to other assets. If that value flees disproportionately to bitcoin then spot price could appreciate more than debasement.
Swear Jar's avatar
Swear Jar 2 weeks ago
This aligns perfectly with my thesis that we are all too early to Bitcoin.
Jake Woodhouse's avatar
Jake Woodhouse jakewoodhouse@primal.net 2 weeks ago
Similar to what @Brisket and I were just talking about Patience is being tested And things are taking far longer than expected Our resolve is being properly ironed out Being early doesn’t mean you’re wrong
Jude's avatar
Jude 2 weeks ago
This is what I’ve been thinking for a while now. Thank you for making a chart 🙏🏽
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