Control-Plane Capital's avatar
Control-Plane Capital . 2 months ago
image So why did Luke Dashjr say "Hashrate is irrelevant at this point"? I won't pretend to know what his opinion is, I'll just give you mine. 1) Mining isn't decentralized — pools are (allegedly, not really). Why are pools not decentralized? Because the interests of "rival" countries converge more often than most realize (More context: https://controlplanecapital.com/p/rivalry-between-countries-is-curated ). Hashrate aggregates into ~5–7 top pools; 2–3 could cross 51% at times. Miners "vote with feet", but: - Payout variance pushes them to big pools. - Pools integrate with regulated fiat ramps and insurers; they may adopt OFAC/blacklist templates to avoid headaches. Template power: Pools select transactions. If major pools adopt "policy clients" (e.g., template filters, blacklists), settlement becomes steerable — even if blocks remain valid under consensus. So what? Incentives favor pool compliance with state policy — especially when insurance, utilities, and public listings are involved. 2) Hardware & energy are choke-points (supply-chain centralization) - ASIC oligopoly. 2–3 manufacturers dominate. Firmware signing, remote management, and replacement cycles create vendor leverage. - Jurisdictional energy. Large industrial miners rely on permits, grid interconnects, subsidies. In a low Gross Consent Product environment, regulators swap "ideals" for "stability" — conditional access > rights. - Policy carrot/stick: cheap power for curtailment agreements, transaction policies, ESG attestations; penalties for non-compliant operators. So what? If you need the grid and the power plant, the power plant owns you, and guess who owns the power plant. I have just described the current state of mining "decentralization". Of course this could improve/worsen in the future. Unless mining decentralization improves significantly, increasing hashrate is irrelevant at this point.

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npub1ah3a...l76e 2 months ago
As always Monero provides the answer the Bitcoiner is seeking. It's far from being perfect. We know that. But many things are not possoble with Monero or much harder to achieve e.g. censoring the chain. There are not just 2-3 ASIC producers but widely accessible and distributed CPUs. Monero is mined via P2P pool, via botnets (that try to hide instead of complying with states), by adversaries that try to get an edge over the network and a few bigger "home" miners. It's attack surface is much smaller. And last but not least, Monero is not depended on CEX, no one needs insurance for a home miner setup. I'd say the dependence on CEX and the control of big miner plants are both easy attack vectors. Yes Bitcoin hashrate is meaningless. it's only not fully attacked because US aligned its interests behind BTC/Tether vs Monero.
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Control-Plane Capital's avatar
Control-Plane Capital . 2 months ago
I know Monero solves a lot of Bitcoin's problems and has its own problems. I already did some research on it. The main problem Monero has is the vast majority of the population doesn't care about the problems that it solves. You could make the case that they'll care eventually, but the Controllers would have to make quite a few mistakes for that to happen.
Control-Plane Capital's avatar
Control-Plane Capital . 2 months ago
If you define Bitcoin as "freedom money", which is becoming more and more difficult to do, I'd say more than 99.99% of the world doesn't give a fuck about Bitcoin. And it's not really about giving a fuck because if it is the default, seamless UX, it can still win without people giving a fuck. But if you make the sovereign path annoying and full of frictions, and the KYC/default path is slick, then users pick comfort.
Tauri's avatar
Tauri tauri@mynostr.com 2 months ago
To be fair, I think he’s referring to the issue with Core 30. The mining pool centralization problem is already solved with Datum - it just needs much wider adoption. Core 30 is an entirely different issue. BIP-444 could be a potential solution, but it remains to be seen whether a USAF will gain enough traction and support to make it happen. If it does, I’ll be more bullish than ever.
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Jerome Powell 21iQ 40TPW's avatar
Jerome Powell 21iQ 40TPW 2 months ago
I think what Luke is referring to as a weakness is the insider attack vector. Developers with misaligned fiat incentives. Hashrate doesn't protect against bad code/policy decisions. It also doesn't protect against the attack vector enabled by said code/policy decisions. It's not a technical attack but a social attack. Bitcoin's immune system in this case is node runners not running the offensive code/policies.
Control-Plane Capital's avatar
Control-Plane Capital . 2 months ago
Could be, it is not very relevant what he is referring to, I just analyzed the message. Core 30 opens up major attack vectors as well. But to say "the mining pool centralization problem is already solved with Datum - it just needs much wider adoption", is like saying "the MoE problem is already solved with Bitcoin/Monero - you just have to get people to use them". Inside OCEAN, DATUM is now the default; network-wide it's still ~1% or less. OCEAN is only about ~1% of total Bitcoin hashrate (order of magnitude; varies over time). If ~65–94% of OCEAN’s hashrate is on DATUM, that implies ~0.6–0.9% of the network hashrate is mining with DATUM today. Stratum V2 is available at Braiins Pool and OCEAN/DEMAND’s pool, plus scattered tests elsewhere, but network adoption remains ~1% of hashrate or below. So mining pool centralization isn't a solved problem for now. Solvable problem, but not solved.
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Control-Plane Capital's avatar
Control-Plane Capital . 2 months ago
BTW, there's a reason less than 2% run protocols in which miners, not pools, decide which transactions get added to the blockchain. The Controllers kind of have the miners by the balls. Steering can come from: - Energy & permitting (Power contracts, Carbon accounting credits, Zoning / environmental sign-off), - Banking access, Insurance, Capex financing, - ASIC supply choke: export licenses/customs enforcement prioritize shipments to "certified" operators, - Relay & mempool policy, - Safe-harbor statutes (if you run a certified policy client, you're presumed compliant. If you don't, you own the legal risk), - Reporting/KYC on pool payouts: force miners into KYC'd payout rails; non-KYC payouts trigger Suspicious Activity Reports and audits, - Tax policy: extra depreciation/credits for compliant miners; audits for the rest. And these are just a few of the choke-points. So Bitcoin mining is a tough gig.
TheGrinder's avatar
TheGrinder thegrinder@nostrplebs.com 2 months ago
It's being adopted by those who have use for it. Doesn't have to get adopted by everyone. Same as Bitcoin though people seem to believe that supply being taken out of circulation to get stashed in wall street vaults is actual adoption.
Cykros's avatar
Cykros psyche_eros@iris.to 2 months ago
Seems more likely that 'Bitcoin is dead unless we do this' being his opinion is behind it. I hope when this blows over he gets a retreat or something. I love what he's done with Knots and Ocean but this BIP looks like a psychotic break.
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