The dangers of leverage, $NAKA edition: The company has $210M in debt to Kraken paying 8% APR backed by most of their Bitcoin stash, or 4405 BTC. This loan is due in December and as BTC price lowers, their Loan-to-Value ratio gets worse and worse. At $63,500, they're at 75% LTV At $59,600, they're at 80% LTV At $56,000, they're at 85% LTV They have a little bit of dry powder left, about 650 BTC that are not pledged to the loan, but they need it to service the 8% interest and the shortfall between revenue and expenditures (particularly executive salaries). Historically, they've tried to hover around 70% LTV, suggesting that the liquidation price isn't too far away from that. So to sum up, there are many ways for this to go wrong: 1. Bitcoin drops enough where they get liquidated ($50k would certainly do it, probably something higher would also do it) 2. BItcoin stays down until December and they can't roll over the loan. 3. Bitcoin stays down until December and they roll over the loan on punitive terms that reduces their stack quicker than they are now. They would likely have to sell some Bitcoin because they're not getting $210M in loans in this scenario. There's really only one way for things to go right: Bitcoin price goes up massively by December. Even then, the interest payments and operations expenses will likely destroy a ton of value. The lesson here isn't to dunk on the company. It's just showing you how fragile leveraged positions are. You can have the world's most pristine asset and still lose if the market moves against you.

Replies (19)

Seems like fractional reserve banking engineering to me. That's what I use Bitcoin to get away from. 😐
50% of the world is incentivized to short. 50% incentivized to long. Must never give shorts a reason to know your name, they’re rumourtrage specialists. It’s cooked. Hoping NAKA holds and survives, rising tide lifts all boats 🚤 🛶 🛥️
Great rundown on a tough spot. All these spots are like little earthquakes in the bitcoin sentiment economy, so we always want as none as possible, but if it happens, I think the strategy is figuring out how to make them win, as opposed to the survival of fittest approach. Tough spot, crossed fingers 🤞🏼 But the point is, read this breakdown. Sweatsville 😰 View quoted note →
also operational expenses = pay some influencers way too much money/salary to shill They should get a real job
hasky 's avatar
hasky 1 month ago
Exactly . Bitcoin is a halal system .