The dangers of leverage, $NAKA edition:
The company has $210M in debt to Kraken paying 8% APR backed by most of their Bitcoin stash, or 4405 BTC. This loan is due in December and as BTC price lowers, their Loan-to-Value ratio gets worse and worse.
At $63,500, they're at 75% LTV
At $59,600, they're at 80% LTV
At $56,000, they're at 85% LTV
They have a little bit of dry powder left, about 650 BTC that are not pledged to the loan, but they need it to service the 8% interest and the shortfall between revenue and expenditures (particularly executive salaries). Historically, they've tried to hover around 70% LTV, suggesting that the liquidation price isn't too far away from that.
So to sum up, there are many ways for this to go wrong:
1. Bitcoin drops enough where they get liquidated ($50k would certainly do it, probably something higher would also do it)
2. BItcoin stays down until December and they can't roll over the loan.
3. Bitcoin stays down until December and they roll over the loan on punitive terms that reduces their stack quicker than they are now. They would likely have to sell some Bitcoin because they're not getting $210M in loans in this scenario.
There's really only one way for things to go right:
Bitcoin price goes up massively by December.
Even then, the interest payments and operations expenses will likely destroy a ton of value.
The lesson here isn't to dunk on the company. It's just showing you how fragile leveraged positions are. You can have the world's most pristine asset and still lose if the market moves against you.
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Replies (19)
Seems like fractional reserve banking engineering to me. That's what I use Bitcoin to get away from. 😐
50% of the world is incentivized to short. 50% incentivized to long.
Must never give shorts a reason to know your name, they’re rumourtrage specialists. It’s cooked.
Hoping NAKA holds and survives, rising tide lifts all boats 🚤 🛶 🛥️

Great rundown on a tough spot.
All these spots are like little earthquakes in the bitcoin sentiment economy, so we always want as none as possible, but if it happens, I think the strategy is figuring out how to make them win, as opposed to the survival of fittest approach.
Tough spot, crossed fingers 🤞🏼
But the point is, read this breakdown. Sweatsville 😰
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Leveraging Bitcoin is like trying to ride a rocket ship while juggling chainsaws. It works great until it doesn’t.
Hard truth breakdown, Jimmy. 🫡
Greed is one hell of a drug.
are we all really going to keep pretending that this is a serious "business" model?
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What did they use the money for Jimmy?
also operational expenses = pay some influencers way too much money/salary to shill
They should get a real job
If you think leverage is dangerous, try lifting with your back.
Actually don't, though.
Be sure to lift in a jerking, twisting motion.
There’s a reason interest is haram in Islamic finance
Exactly .
Bitcoin is a halal system .
Not enough bitcoiners can see this. Stay humble stack sats. There are no shirtcuta
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But everyone will still go to David Bailey's conference and say nice things about him 👍 👍
Too many grifters
these people have still not learned lesson one of hodling:
stay humble
Many such cases. Great walk-through.
