Please explain more

Bitcoin is like a financial weather report: liquidity is the wind, and Bitcoin is the weathervane. Harder the currency, stronger the Bitcoin breeze.

So monetary fiat inflation is mirrored in the price uptick of bitcoin and at the same time more demand for BTC and supply reduction will lead to higher price of bitcoin. Is that right? How do we actually measure the value of Bitcoin? I mean value as usefulness for people. It’s expressed through more demand, right? I think we need to have another conversation on my podcast 😉

Where can I find global m2 data? Is there a tradingview symbol?

what's the actual mechanism? what type of entity has such quick access to new liquidity (hedge funds, billionaires?)? are they just spot buying btc? or is it that banks are making loans (new money) to entities using it for a btc position? So strangely the causal relationship could be partly the other way around too

Given that halvings are a known and sure fact, it should not have any impact on the price, but they seem to have. Is it because economic actors are not as rational as supposed, and they live on paycheck to paycheck basis instead?

I appreciate your posts here on Nostr! I’d argue there is no “Global” indicator of liquidity. There are no true ‘macro’ indicators anymore, none that correlate the 140+ money markets with any accuracy, so ‘global’ is not a forward concept, imo, it’s a silly argument, but needs to be made… I also can’t find any basis for what we’re expected to accept in IMF reports. That said, it’s obvious Bitcoin is outperforming all assets - not just “fiat/monetary-base” but ALL assets, so there’s that. Umm…well, just really appreciate your posts, here. And I appreciate you, Lyn. And that we have you on this platform, it means so much!

$boost View quoted note →

If the fed is still tightening but global liquidity is going up, then that must mean other countries are starting to loosen. Any idea who?

"#Bitcoin supply #halvings are an expression of its hardness. Global #liquidity is an expression of fiat currency #hardness. " Lyn Alden Nov 2023 - 817000 Bitclock #money supply #finstr #plebchain #[0]

Hey @Lyn Alden You rodent cunt

Your posts are awesome Lyn thanks for sharing! Do you see the BTC futures market as a treat since IMO its being used to manipulate BTC price?

Friends don’t lie

Good point Lyn. Are all countries printing more money… does that = global liquidity?

Fully agree that liquidity drives Bitcoin's year to year price action. And the good news is that USD liquidity is going up forever, Lyn. I'll take it a step further: halvings do not materially impact price whatsoever. View quoted note →

Technically Bitcoin should be part of M2. So it makes sense that move together.

By "base value" I mean the minimum amount of labor and goods it commands as measured in units of Bitcoin. This tends to follow an exponential, however as you've seen, it's very difficult to quantify since everything else also shifts wildly due to its market conditions, including fiat itself. If you presume any price of bitcoin over this base value is speculation, and only serves to maintain its upward pressure (yet, is subject to continuous correction), then we can imagine a minimum value persists that is related to its issuance schedule. The "bull-run and bear market" cycle patterns are intrinsic to the nature of market adoption of Bitcoin, and perhaps necessary, to allow self-interested agents to contribute to grassroots marketeering of the new commodity. It could have just as easily been programmed to follow a continuous declination of issuance over time rather than a four-year stepwise halving schedule. Also, the issuance adjustment could have just as easily been more frequent. But no, we were given an issuance schedule that can not only be easily remembered, but provides enough time for the market to fully absorb the shock of its change. One might think Satoshi more than a cryptographic genius, but also one that either has an instinctual or a deep comprehension of market psychology. As I had once speculated by reviewing the very first check in of the codebase, I could glean that Satoshi had a corporate and Wall Street background in software. I believe the issuance schedule was carefully chosen based on some kind of ideal publicly traded asset behavior. Consider the automobile. We humans perceive our vehicles are more powerful and that we are "going faster" if the shift pattern of the transmission gearboxes is stepwise rather than continuous. The early manual shift transmission provides a stepwise torque curve out of mechanical necessity. Today, with the more reliable continuously variable (CV) gear mechanism, it is unnecessary to alter the engine RPM. Instead, it's feasible to hold the engine at a constant RPM at its peak power efficiency and deliver a constant acceleration to the car. The reason CV transmissions do not do this is that people not only expect to be jostled around during acceleration to traveling speeds, but people will call for more power to maintain the satisfying feeling of acceleration and, consequently, will use more fuel, wear and tear on the car, but also think the vehicle's performance is inferior and not recommend it to their peers. Essentially, the perfect transmission provides an imperfect experience. It's this sort of insight into human psychology the four-year halving appears to harness. In the end, we end up in the same place, 21M, but the process, although seemingly shocking, yields an overall gentler outcome. If you also accept that adoption will meet resistance from not only government policies but also out of self-interested individuals and organizations that lose power as a result of the transition, the changeover will also follow a corresponding exponential pattern that represents their gradual receding from wealth and prominence if only due to limitations on the human condition. This transition of power would contribute to the increase in base value of bitcoin to the economy. One might consider a world in the absence of this invention had no better alternative emerged to these inferior forms of money, and this allowed certain structures and groups such as banking families and cantillion beneficiaries to indefinitely maintain wealth and power with little interference.

Bitcoin value can be measured against the current fiat system in terms of percentage (ie is it going from being worth 1% of broad money supply to 5%?), can be measured against gold, etc. And then more directly can be measured in terms of ecosystem. How does UX look compared to 3 years, 5 years, 10 years ago? How many bitcoin hubs do we have today compared to 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years ago? Like Bitcoin Beach, Bitcoin Jungle, Bitcoin Ekasi, a recurring Indonesian bitcoin conference, a recurring Ghana bitcoin conference, etc. Happy to come back on the podcast sometime. :)

Watch reverse repo (frozen liquidity now moving out), Treasury flows (spend into the economy), Treasury interest payments (high) and private debt (all time highs?), incl. margin. China is doing stimulus not sure how much of that reaches the US and when. Velocity also helps and people going to work makes them confident to spend.

Why is there a 4-year signal in global M2?

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Thanks Lyn. The logarmithmic BTC price correlating wtih the linear M2 quantity suggests that price could go much higher. Some are predicting deflation next year. If that is the case then we could really be off to the races!

Followed #plebchain