Why we aren't in an AI bubble - TL;DR
The end goal is AI governance (technocracy).
Suppose you want to continuously cover meaningful signals across ~8 billion people + critical infrastructure.
After edge filtering you still ingest, say, 10–100 events/person/day (payments, travel gates, high-salience comms, checkpoints, high-risk Internet of Things). Call it 10¹¹–10¹² events/day into regional fusion.
For AI governance, demand for AI/HPC is effectively insatiable for a decade.
The crazy CapEx you hear about is a state capacity build.
CapEx is converging on governable AI: identity, provenance, audit, lineage, rollback, simulation. That's a decade of insatiable, constraint-bound demand.
There is no bubble in the power-packaging-High Bandwidth Memory-identity-provenance stack demanded by AI governance. That stack is being bought by the only buyer that matters when consent is scarce — and they don't miss quarters.
More context:
https://controlplanecapital.com/p/why-we-arent-in-an-ai-bubble-top
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Spoiler alert: the largest companies in the world are actually the government.
Consent levels have dropped significantly since the Covid scam.
When enforcement tech gets better and cheaper, the system can afford less consent.
This is why governments have put strong emphasis on improving enforcement tech, especially in recent years.
Because improved enforcement tech = consent substitution.
When consent is scarce, systems spend more on tech + law.
You might have heard about the "round-tripping" in the tech sector.
It's mostly just masked subsidies.
Government and mega-platform cash/benefits leave one pocket and reappear elsewhere as "ecosystem support", "credits", or "co-investment", not as line-item subsidies. The same dollar touches multiple ledgers (cloud, ISV, integrator, buyer) and returns as growth, margins, or "productivity" instead of "aid".
AI isn't a consumer story. It's a state capacity build.
CapEx is converging on governable AI: identity, provenance, audit, lineage, rollback, simulation. That's a decade of insatiable, constraint-bound demand.
David Sacks, the paypal mafia, deep state operative is an AI governance enjoyer.
I already wrote about this in this article: