Would it be a good idea to found a company that borrows fiat, buys real estate, and invests the profits into bitcoin? Could such a company promote non-fiat traditional architecture in the long run?

Replies (22)

jimbocoin 🃏's avatar
jimbocoin 🃏 6 months ago
What are the “profits” from “real estate”? Do you mean speculative appreciation? Or do you mean income from leasing?
That's what I meant. But you are proposing to place profits from the real estate business into bitcoin, whereas I think it makes more sense the other way around
Why? Not that I’m into financial games, but borrowing fiat and buying bitcoin has been a winning move historically. Especially if liability is limited to a company.
Fiat debt used to buy Bitcoin is literally the best way to short the fiat ponzi game, provided one has the ability to withstand volatility without being burned. Why do you suggest keeping away from fiat debt, other then playing it safe?
"Exactly. It’s like leveraging the declining value of fiat to accumulate the hardest asset. Just needs a solid risk management plan—because timing the market or being forced to sell low can undo the whole thesis."
Buying Bitcoin with a loan (without leverage) is possible, but you must be absolutely sure you can repay the loan without relying on Bitcoin going up
jimbocoin 🃏's avatar
jimbocoin 🃏 6 months ago
If you’re the kind of person who can use real estate to yield income, it could be a reasonable approach, providing it’s not cutting into better opportunities. The real trick here is that when you get a loan to buy real estate, the loan to-value (LTV) isn’t going to be 100%. It’ll be something like 70%. Throwing some numbers out there (ballpark): - Real estate value: $1M - Loan amount: $700k - Your equity: $300k - Your Bitcoin: 0 Now, this means you have $300k tied up in real estate that *could have been Bitcoin*. Is it worth it? After 1 year: - Real estate value: $1.08M - Loan amount: $695k - Your equity: $385k At this point, you need some way to extract the paper profit of your increased equity if you want to use it to buy Bitcoin, and then you’ll buy it at Bitcoin’s future price. Compare to using your $300k to buy Bitcoin directly: - Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($300k) After 1 year: - Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($???k) But here’s the trick. We have to guess what Bitcoin’s compound annual appreciation rate (CAGR) is going to be. We can guess that it’ll be the same as your hypothesized real estate equity growth: - Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($385k) => +28% return That would be a bad year for Bitcoin, historically speaking. The ballpark that I tend to use is 40%. So: - Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($420k) at 40% CAGR The difference between these numbers is your opportunity cost for engaging in the real estate trade. That is: $420k - $385k = $35k. Or in BTC terms, about 0.35 BTC. All of this has to be napkin math because we cannot possibly predict with fidelity the Bitcoin price in dollars a year out. But *to me* it seems like a bad trade because of the necessary equity that one must hold to get the loan, and the difficulty of liquidating/refinancing the real estate to extract the appreciation.
But you have to pay back the fiat you borrowed... That's just gambling on Bitcoin price within the loan term. In other words, leverage. Not inherently bad, but inherently more risky. You could end up stacking less sats in the end. What's the potential gain? 5% more than you borrowed? Not worth it for the risk and the headache if you ask me.
I think there's potential in this area. I would say perhaps the biggest issue with this strategy and real estate right now is if we might be heading for a real estate downturn or not, or more specifically to how to know if a building/area will appreciate? Regarding profits the question is, will they come through cash flow, refinancing, or property sales (which would trigger capital gains tax)? Ideally, generating cash flow and converting it into Bitcoin would be excellent. Even better would be to see property appreciation, refinance that increased value, and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. Also great. If this is done in a jurisdiction that allows Bitcoin to be monetized on balance sheets, the potential is even greater—enabling larger loans and further financial leverage. It's a kind of Microstrategy version, but for real estate. The biggest issue in my view is if there's a downturn in the real estate market. Which is very possible to be honest. That would change everything. But still there's always niche markets too, etc.
:P's avatar
:P 6 months ago
I’ve been thinking about this. The way I’m approaching it is start a company, buy bitcoin, borrow against your bitcoin 20% LTV (over collateralized) Use the cash the purchase cash-flowing real estate in an all cash deal. Add whatever value you can and then you have 2 options use the cash flow to stack corn and service the debt from the Bitcoin loan. Or refinance the real estate pull out the cash tax free and buy bitcoin. In this scenario you end up with more bitcoin and real estate. It can be done over and over. It’s similar to what real estate developers / investors do today. They acquire more property by borrowing / refinancing (tax free) against their properties as they appreciate and as their equity increases from paying down the principal. They use that cash to buy or develop a new property and once they get it cash flowing they pull their cash out and look for another deal. This architecture uses bitcoin as the unit of account and measures gains in Bitcoin. You will also be in a position to collect rent in Bitcoin from your tenants.
:P's avatar
:P 6 months ago
Read my reply. Everything changes when you put the initial investment into bitcoin and borrow against your bitcoin.
Bitcoin does enable more leisure, lower time preference, and even sound architecture, thanks to its sound-money principles. Economically though, lending against Bitcoin to buy real estate isn’t ideal, since real estate tends to underperform BTC. But as a passion project or lifestyle choice, it can make sense! Since it will allow you to outperform the rate of inflation, maintain the property etc.!! If you’re looking to build something meaningful, it’s definitely interesting, there are even some great examples out there, like projects by Rahim Taghizadegan.