If you’re the kind of person who can use real estate to yield income, it could be a reasonable approach, providing it’s not cutting into better opportunities.
The real trick here is that when you get a loan to buy real estate, the loan to-value (LTV) isn’t going to be 100%. It’ll be something like 70%.
Throwing some numbers out there (ballpark):
- Real estate value: $1M
- Loan amount: $700k
- Your equity: $300k
- Your Bitcoin: 0
Now, this means you have $300k tied up in real estate that *could have been Bitcoin*. Is it worth it?
After 1 year:
- Real estate value: $1.08M
- Loan amount: $695k
- Your equity: $385k
At this point, you need some way to extract the paper profit of your increased equity if you want to use it to buy Bitcoin, and then you’ll buy it at Bitcoin’s future price.
Compare to using your $300k to buy Bitcoin directly:
- Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($300k)
After 1 year:
- Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($???k)
But here’s the trick. We have to guess what Bitcoin’s compound annual appreciation rate (CAGR) is going to be. We can guess that it’ll be the same as your hypothesized real estate equity growth:
- Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($385k) => +28% return
That would be a bad year for Bitcoin, historically speaking. The ballpark that I tend to use is 40%. So:
- Your Bitcoin: 3BTC ($420k) at 40% CAGR
The difference between these numbers is your opportunity cost for engaging in the real estate trade. That is: $420k - $385k = $35k. Or in BTC terms, about 0.35 BTC.
All of this has to be napkin math because we cannot possibly predict with fidelity the Bitcoin price in dollars a year out.
But *to me* it seems like a bad trade because of the necessary equity that one must hold to get the loan, and the difficulty of liquidating/refinancing the real estate to extract the appreciation.
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Read my reply. Everything changes when you put the initial investment into bitcoin and borrow against your bitcoin.