Let's debunk the most common Bitcoin Core v30 arguments that I've seen circulate. Sadly, we are sleepwalking off a cliff. I keep seeing this Andreas Antonopoulos clip in which many assumptions are made and is taken out of context. The TLDR statement he makes that I'm going to address is: - "If you pay the fee, your transaction is legitimate. There is no spam transaction, there is no such thing as an illegitimate transaction. There are only transactions that did get mined and transactions that didn't have enough fee to get mined." And here @Stacking Functions asks a very important question: - "What happens when 'the market' is being distorted (and possibly attacked) by state actors with an infinite money printer? Is that a 'free market'?" To say that "if it pays a fee it's legitimate" is a market-purist general truth, but it ignores adversarial demand with non-economic motives (a state actor willing to burn money to shape outcomes). 1) Why "fee = legitimacy" is incomplete A free market doesn't only include utility-maximizers. It also includes strategic buyers whose objective is not settlement utility but congestion, legal traps, and narrative damage. The fee market can't distinguish between: - a million normal, pleb payments and - a million high-fee, low-utility writes whose sole purpose is to raise the global fee floor, bloat the chain, or embed toxic payloads. If someone with deep pockets (e.g. state actor) wants a persistent 200–400 sat/vB floor to price out MoE (Medium of Exchange), they can try to buy it. 2) Concrete economics of a fee-floor attack - Rough vBytes per block ≈ 1,000,000 vB. - At 50 sat/vB, the cost to fill one block ≈ 0.5 Bitcoin. - At Bitcoin $114k, that’s ~$57k/block; ~$8.2M/day (144 blocks). - At 200 sat/vB, ≈ 2 BTC/block; ~$228k/block; ~$32.8M/day. A major state could sustain this for weeks/months if the policy goal (cripple retail MoE, force users custodial, create "Bitcoin hosts illegal content" headlines) is valuable enough. Miners would happily include these transactions (fees up, revenue up); small-payments get crowded out; most users slide toward custodial L2s or stable-coins (CBDCs). That's containment by price, not protocol. 3) The usual counter-claims - and why they don't fully save you - "But the attacker is paying a real cost; Bitcoin wins on miner revenue" - True; miners profit. But if the policy win (killing retail MoE, justifying compliance clients) is worth $30–50M/month to a state, they can keep burning. - "Market adapts; fees settle back" - Yes, fee spikes mean-revert. The question isn't spikes; it's a new fee floor (e.g., 50 -> 150 sat/vB median) that permanently prices out low-value payments and normalizes custodial pathways. - "Users move to Lightning/Fedimint; problem solved" - Those centralize at the edges (big custodians, popular guardians), where legal and policy pressure is easiest. Great UX, easier to KYC/blacklist - mission accomplished (for containment). - "We'll counter with node filters" - Per-node filters just shift the politics to who runs whose filter. If enough pools embrace policy templates (insurer/utility pressure), miners - not your node - decide settlement norms. The Andreas Antonopoulus statement that's taken out of context ("fee = legitimacy") is neat for peer competition but naïve in an adversarial, policy-driven world. If default policy makes large arbitrary data easy (Bitcoin Core v30), you've just lowered the attacker's operational cost and raised the political payoff for compliance clients and app-store/cloud choke-points. That's not a protocol break; it's a governance win against MoE. 4) Why v30-style policy loosening (OP_RETURN large payloads) matters "State actors can attack the network right now, so how does Bitcoin Core v30 change things?" Bitcoin Core v30 removes the long-standing ~80 B OP_RETURN relay default, effectively making large OP_RETURN payloads easy by default and allowing multiple OP_RETURNs per tx. Before vs after (at the policy layer) - Before: Standard mempool policy discourages very large arbitrary data in policy (nodes won't relay non-standard forms by default). You could still stuff data (e.g., Taproot/witness tricks), but you have to work around policy filters, custom peers, or miner relationships - more work, more obvious. - After (if defaults relax): Arbitrary-sized OP_RETURN payloads become "standard enough" to relay by default. That: * makes spam cheaper to coordinate operationally (no special peering, no boutique scripts); * reduces attribution (looks like "enthusiast data" rather than an obvious custom exploit - e.g. by a state actor); * and widens the "liability channel" (malware/CSAM-in-chain is one broadcast away for anyone with a wallet kit). The effect under a Core v30-like default: - It's easier for a deep-pocket actor to spam-attack: less custom infra, fewer "nonstandard" hurdles, more plausible deniability. - Consequences: sustained high fee floors, node-operator legal risk, centralization pressure (compliance nodes, policy-pools), and stronger MoE suppression (push to custodial/stable-coin [CBDC] rails). That's exactly the containment corridor I've described in my previous posts. So what about Bitcoin Core v30 makes the attack surface bigger? 1) Congestion efficiency: - OP_RETURN outputs are provably unspendable, so they don't bloat the UTXO set - but they do bloat block bytes and mempool memory/bandwidth. - For a fee-floor attack, OP_RETURN is an efficient "pure byte" filler: maximum congestion, minimal future state; attackers aren't "paying" with future UTXO pressure. In other words, to push up the minimum fee ("fee floor"), an attacker can flood the mempool with transactions that use OP_RETURN outputs - these are just data bytes that fill blockspace and cause congestion, but they don't create UTXOs (they're provably unspendable). So the attacker maximizes congestion per sat paid today while leaving no long-term UTXO bloat to "pay for" later. 2) If large arbitrary payloads propagate by default, it's trivial to get contraband onto-chain. Then you can run the playbook: - "Nodes relay illegal content -> node = publisher" - "Clouds hosting nodes violate AUPs (Acceptable Use Policy) -> mass evictions" - "App stores delist non-filtering wallets" Net effect: chill self-custody and self-hosted nodes, push usage into KYC custodians. 3) Narrative cover for policy clients: - Once headlines say "the chain hosts harmful content", pools adopting filtering templates (policy clients) get social and insurer cover: "We're just blocking abuse". - That's the fast lane to politically steerable settlement - without a single consensus change. 4) Operational deniability for the attacker: - With big payloads accepted by default policy, spam waves look like speculative mania or "digital art" booms. It's harder to finger a single adversary, easier to sustain the fee floor. The fact that most Bitcoiners still haven't figured out that we don't live in a free market, the largest companies are State-subsidized, the State picks winners and losers, and that Bitcoin as a MoE is a direct competitor to CBDCs/stablecoins, is shocking. ================================== The other day I saw Peter Todd (Bitcoin core developer) begging for donations again for his projects. How it is even possible to be an OG Bitcoiner, to be in Bitcoin cycle after cycle and to still beg for money is something I can't comprehend. These are the people you are outsourcing your Bitcoin decision-making to. From anecdotal observations, these Core developers aren't exactly ballin'. This doesn't conclusively mean anything of course - I just ask you to use your critical thinking abilities and to not blindly appeal to authority. ================================== More context on how Bitcoin Core's v30 Update is an attack on Bitcoin's decentralization: View quoted note → View quoted note →

Replies (4)

First of all thank you for answering some of my specific questions. Secondly, I'm glad that people (assuming you're human lol) like you exist on nostr and in the bitcoin space to present these important ideas. Even if that was AI assisted your writeup was super helpful. Thanks again!
Agree on wanting the unproductive childish "debates" to go away. Not sure if we can completely let our guard down and not be vigilant about something as important as bitcoin for future generations though..
Control-Plane Capital's avatar Control-Plane Capital
Let's debunk the most common Bitcoin Core v30 arguments that I've seen circulate. Sadly, we are sleepwalking off a cliff. I keep seeing this Andreas Antonopoulos clip in which many assumptions are made and is taken out of context. The TLDR statement he makes that I'm going to address is: - "If you pay the fee, your transaction is legitimate. There is no spam transaction, there is no such thing as an illegitimate transaction. There are only transactions that did get mined and transactions that didn't have enough fee to get mined." And here @Stacking Functions asks a very important question: - "What happens when 'the market' is being distorted (and possibly attacked) by state actors with an infinite money printer? Is that a 'free market'?" To say that "if it pays a fee it's legitimate" is a market-purist general truth, but it ignores adversarial demand with non-economic motives (a state actor willing to burn money to shape outcomes). 1) Why "fee = legitimacy" is incomplete A free market doesn't only include utility-maximizers. It also includes strategic buyers whose objective is not settlement utility but congestion, legal traps, and narrative damage. The fee market can't distinguish between: - a million normal, pleb payments and - a million high-fee, low-utility writes whose sole purpose is to raise the global fee floor, bloat the chain, or embed toxic payloads. If someone with deep pockets (e.g. state actor) wants a persistent 200–400 sat/vB floor to price out MoE (Medium of Exchange), they can try to buy it. 2) Concrete economics of a fee-floor attack - Rough vBytes per block ≈ 1,000,000 vB. - At 50 sat/vB, the cost to fill one block ≈ 0.5 Bitcoin. - At Bitcoin $114k, that’s ~$57k/block; ~$8.2M/day (144 blocks). - At 200 sat/vB, ≈ 2 BTC/block; ~$228k/block; ~$32.8M/day. A major state could sustain this for weeks/months if the policy goal (cripple retail MoE, force users custodial, create "Bitcoin hosts illegal content" headlines) is valuable enough. Miners would happily include these transactions (fees up, revenue up); small-payments get crowded out; most users slide toward custodial L2s or stable-coins (CBDCs). That's containment by price, not protocol. 3) The usual counter-claims - and why they don't fully save you - "But the attacker is paying a real cost; Bitcoin wins on miner revenue" - True; miners profit. But if the policy win (killing retail MoE, justifying compliance clients) is worth $30–50M/month to a state, they can keep burning. - "Market adapts; fees settle back" - Yes, fee spikes mean-revert. The question isn't spikes; it's a new fee floor (e.g., 50 -> 150 sat/vB median) that permanently prices out low-value payments and normalizes custodial pathways. - "Users move to Lightning/Fedimint; problem solved" - Those centralize at the edges (big custodians, popular guardians), where legal and policy pressure is easiest. Great UX, easier to KYC/blacklist - mission accomplished (for containment). - "We'll counter with node filters" - Per-node filters just shift the politics to who runs whose filter. If enough pools embrace policy templates (insurer/utility pressure), miners - not your node - decide settlement norms. The Andreas Antonopoulus statement that's taken out of context ("fee = legitimacy") is neat for peer competition but naïve in an adversarial, policy-driven world. If default policy makes large arbitrary data easy (Bitcoin Core v30), you've just lowered the attacker's operational cost and raised the political payoff for compliance clients and app-store/cloud choke-points. That's not a protocol break; it's a governance win against MoE. 4) Why v30-style policy loosening (OP_RETURN large payloads) matters "State actors can attack the network right now, so how does Bitcoin Core v30 change things?" Bitcoin Core v30 removes the long-standing ~80 B OP_RETURN relay default, effectively making large OP_RETURN payloads easy by default and allowing multiple OP_RETURNs per tx. Before vs after (at the policy layer) - Before: Standard mempool policy discourages very large arbitrary data in policy (nodes won't relay non-standard forms by default). You could still stuff data (e.g., Taproot/witness tricks), but you have to work around policy filters, custom peers, or miner relationships - more work, more obvious. - After (if defaults relax): Arbitrary-sized OP_RETURN payloads become "standard enough" to relay by default. That: * makes spam cheaper to coordinate operationally (no special peering, no boutique scripts); * reduces attribution (looks like "enthusiast data" rather than an obvious custom exploit - e.g. by a state actor); * and widens the "liability channel" (malware/CSAM-in-chain is one broadcast away for anyone with a wallet kit). The effect under a Core v30-like default: - It's easier for a deep-pocket actor to spam-attack: less custom infra, fewer "nonstandard" hurdles, more plausible deniability. - Consequences: sustained high fee floors, node-operator legal risk, centralization pressure (compliance nodes, policy-pools), and stronger MoE suppression (push to custodial/stable-coin [CBDC] rails). That's exactly the containment corridor I've described in my previous posts. So what about Bitcoin Core v30 makes the attack surface bigger? 1) Congestion efficiency: - OP_RETURN outputs are provably unspendable, so they don't bloat the UTXO set - but they do bloat block bytes and mempool memory/bandwidth. - For a fee-floor attack, OP_RETURN is an efficient "pure byte" filler: maximum congestion, minimal future state; attackers aren't "paying" with future UTXO pressure. In other words, to push up the minimum fee ("fee floor"), an attacker can flood the mempool with transactions that use OP_RETURN outputs - these are just data bytes that fill blockspace and cause congestion, but they don't create UTXOs (they're provably unspendable). So the attacker maximizes congestion per sat paid today while leaving no long-term UTXO bloat to "pay for" later. 2) If large arbitrary payloads propagate by default, it's trivial to get contraband onto-chain. Then you can run the playbook: - "Nodes relay illegal content -> node = publisher" - "Clouds hosting nodes violate AUPs (Acceptable Use Policy) -> mass evictions" - "App stores delist non-filtering wallets" Net effect: chill self-custody and self-hosted nodes, push usage into KYC custodians. 3) Narrative cover for policy clients: - Once headlines say "the chain hosts harmful content", pools adopting filtering templates (policy clients) get social and insurer cover: "We're just blocking abuse". - That's the fast lane to politically steerable settlement - without a single consensus change. 4) Operational deniability for the attacker: - With big payloads accepted by default policy, spam waves look like speculative mania or "digital art" booms. It's harder to finger a single adversary, easier to sustain the fee floor. The fact that most Bitcoiners still haven't figured out that we don't live in a free market, the largest companies are State-subsidized, the State picks winners and losers, and that Bitcoin as a MoE is a direct competitor to CBDCs/stablecoins, is shocking. ================================== The other day I saw Peter Todd (Bitcoin core developer) begging for donations again for his projects. How it is even possible to be an OG Bitcoiner, to be in Bitcoin cycle after cycle and to still beg for money is something I can't comprehend. These are the people you are outsourcing your Bitcoin decision-making to. From anecdotal observations, these Core developers aren't exactly ballin'. This doesn't conclusively mean anything of course - I just ask you to use your critical thinking abilities and to not blindly appeal to authority. ================================== More context on how Bitcoin Core's v30 Update is an attack on Bitcoin's decentralization: View quoted note → View quoted note →
View quoted note →
I keep seeing this statement: "If Bitcoin doesn't survive the State's attack due to Bitcoin Core v30, then it was never going to make it anyway. Everything is good for Bitcoin, else Bitcoin is no good." The answer is a bit nuanced but very important. Governments don't actually want to kill (ban) Bitcoin because it is contrary to their incentives. If the US government had a magic "ban Bitcoin" button, they would not press it. A true ban drives use off-grid (Tor, mesh, cash ramps), destroys visibility, and raises policing costs. Containment via KYC perimeters is cheaper and yields data. However, if the US government had a "disincentivize Bitcoin as a mass MoE, disincentivize Bitcoin node running, and force Mining pools toward template rules", they would press that button. And if they had a pretext (e.g. a mass CSAM spam attack), and the narrative is on their side, then they would instantly press that button. That's called the "Hegelian dialectic" (Problem -> Reaction -> Solution). Governments don't usually come out of the blue with draconian measures, they create a problem first (which is what Bitcoin Core v30 is). If governments decide to disincentivize Bitcoin as a mass MoE, disincentivize Bitcoin node running, and force Mining pools toward template rules, they can do it starting tomorrow. After all, they control the perimiter: - cloud AUPs (Acceptable Use Policies), - app stores, - payments (exchanges, banks), - policy. More context: View quoted note → However, they would really like to have the "Problem" part of the "Hegelian dialectic" before acting. Elizabeth Warren (of course it's not her, its the deep State central bankers) already attacked Bitcoin nodes - painting them as unlicensed money transmitters. This happened in December of 2023, but she got a lot of push-back. She argued that Bitcoin's decentralized nature allows for unregulated activities, including operating as an unlicensed money transmitter. She argued that without proper oversight, Bitcoin can facilitate illegal activities and evade traditional financial regulations. I am not under the impression that Bitcoin is unaffected by every state attack, however, the optics and narrative around the State's draconian measures are very important - why would you give your enemy more ammunition? Here is the TLDR of what governments actually want: - Merchant MoE suppression, node/platform de-platforming bursts, strict KYC travel-rule, Mining Pool/template control. The worst attack vectors for Bitcoin are: 1) App-store & wallet policy - Even though Google Play and Apple App Store have not banned self-custody wallets yet, you saw what enforcement looks like with Samourai Wallet (they also got criminally charged). That wasn’t “non-KYC equals banned,” but it proves the lever works. - App stores can (a) require KYCed identity linking for crypto wallet apps, (b) remove background sync/relay privileges, or (c) restrict non-custodial key paths under "consumer protection". That would instantly de-index non-KYC wallets for 90%+ of retail, with zero parliamentary debate. 2) Mining Pool/template control - If big pools adopt policy clients (template rules that filter or prioritize transactions) due to insurer requirements, utility interconnect terms, or internal counsel, actual block content becomes politically steerable - without touching Bitcoin consensus. - Marathon already did this in 2021 when they announced “OFAC-compliant” block production (reversed after backlash, but proof that template policy pressure is real). - Same for F2Pool (China) in 2023-2025 when independent monitoring spotted missing OFAC-sanctioned transactions in some F2Pool blocks. - Large U.S./EU miners rely on insured facilities and utility PPAs (Power Purchase agreements). Clauses about "legal compliance" and "risk mitigation" can be interpreted as transaction-screening expectations (especially when governments publish sanctioned lists). You don't need a law; you need an underwriter or grid operator to say "no template screening = no coverage/interconnect". - Counter-force: Stratum V2 job negotiation lets individual miners propose their own templates - reducing pool control - but adoption is partial, and pools can still set acceptance policies. - Insurance/utility/hosting contracts can quietly force pools toward template rules ("we comply with lists"). So I am not under the impression that Bitcoin is invincible, the question is: Why make it more vulnerable? Why gift governments the "Problem" part of the Hegelian dialectic? More context: View quoted note →