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Paul Sernine
lupin@nostrcheck.me
npub1p9v2...ae5w
Don’t trust, verify. Patience is a virtue. 2C9F 255D 6FE1 B572 9226 BE7D CCFB B6AF 3CF8 03EE #nostr since 775029
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lupin 1 week ago
Thank you for another nice situation overview my fren. Your take on the Urea fertilizer bottleneck and that it‘s pissing people off is apt in a unique way: urea is one of the main ingredients of urine! So instead of being pissed, all these ppl should just collect their urine & use it as fertilizer for their crops as well as themselves, but that‘s for another day when I see you on the other side… https://fountain.fm/episode/XvBLU96092oaN6RS5Vp9 View quoted note →
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lupin 1 week ago
GM & PV fellow nostriches ☕️☀️ Wishing everyone a great & successful day! Don’t forget to practice some meditation today & focus on what’s really important in life. Stay humble & stack sats 🫂🧡💜 #coffeechain #plebchain
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lupin 2 weeks ago
Paul Sernine's avatar
lupin 2 weeks ago
GM & PV fellow nostriches ☕️☀️ Have a great & successful day. Stay humble & stack sats 🫂🧡💜 #coffeechain #plebchain
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lupin 2 weeks ago
Thanks to @walker for this nice interview of @Brandon Gentile . Taking back education & fostering (or even reinstating) multi-generational dialogue is extremely important today if we want to survive as social species. Keep up the good work, both of you, and keep spreading the word! View quoted note →
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lupin 3 weeks ago
Thank you to @walker for a great, inspiring & entertaining interview with @Erik Cason ! Your podcast episodes are always worth the time & I highly recommend listening to them on a regular basis to anyone interested in #Bitcoin & its ecosystem. Keep up the good work! View quoted note →
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lupin 1 month ago
From Robert Kiyosaki‘s FB channel today: „WARNING: $9.6 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ABOUT TO EXPLODE Most people have NO CLUE what's coming in 2026. Here's what the fake news media isn't telling you: $9.6 TRILLION of U.S. debt matures in 2026. That's 25% of ALL federal debt rolling over in ONE year. WTF does this mean? Back in 2020-2021, the government borrowed TRILLIONS at basically 0% interest. Today? Interest rates are around 4%. Now they have to REFINANCE all that debt at MUCH HIGHER rates. Translation: The government's interest payments will top $1 TRILLION per year. The biggest in HISTORY. What happens next? The Fed will do what they ALWAYS do. PRINT MORE FAKE MONEY. Lower rates. Print dollars. Bail out the government. This is EXACTLY why I keep buying GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN, and ETHEREUM. When the Fed prints…real assets go UP. When the Fed prints…your fake dollars become WORTHLESS. The middle class will panic when inflation comes back. The rich are already positioning NOW. Rich Dad taught me: "The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." Right now? Most people are asleep. By the time this hits mainstream news…it will be too late. Get educated. Take action. Trade your fake dollars for REAL money before 2026.“
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lupin 1 month ago
Here‘s a vital insight from Robert Kiyosaki, given to him by his Rich dad: „Poor people don't hate the rich. They hate the decisions they've made. And they blame the people who made different ones.“ Stay humble & stack sats. And never give up on your dreams, fellow nostriches!
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lupin 1 month ago
Thank you to @walker for this great interview of @npub102hl...des6 ! Love the nuance & deep knowledge Jimmy brought to the topics discussed. Kudos to both of you for your dedicated work! Highly recommended episode for anyone interested in #bitcoin and its past & current developments. View quoted note →
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lupin 1 month ago
Thank you to @Jake Woodhouse for another great & inspiring interview, this time with @npub1eawxwqldulz8rn80jug6n63seyn8pwelm9mmu7rdt622lfj7am9qgem0rx ! Highly recommended episode and, of course, podcast series! Kudos to both of you for your dedicated work! View quoted note →
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lupin 1 month ago
Some insight from Craig Tapping (on FB): „Bitcoin Cycles: Forget the 4 Year Myth. Follow the Liquidity. For years, the dominant narrative has been the “Bitcoin 4 year cycle” tied to halvings. It sounds clean. It feels predictable. It gives people comfort. But when you step back and overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the pattern becomes much clearer and far more powerful. Now let’s break this down properly. --- 1. Market Tops: Liquidity Tightening, Not Halvings Look at the major cycle peaks: * 2013–2014 * 2017–2018 * 2021–2022 Each of these tops formed as: * Inflation became overheated * QE stopped * Central Banks switched back to QT * Liquidity rolled over That is the consistent pattern. Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge. When global liquidity contracts, speculative assets struggle. Every single major top aligns with tightening conditions. It is not the halving that kills the bull run. It is the withdrawal of liquidity. --- 2. Mid Cycle Corrections: The Liquidity Pivot Now look at the mid cycle drawdowns: * 2015 correction: roughly 48% * 2019–2020 correction: roughly 72% * Current drawdown: roughly 52% What happened during those moments? Central Banks ended QT. Liquidity stopped falling. A transition toward QE began. These corrections were violent, but they happened at liquidity inflection points. That matters. These were not random crashes. They were liquidity resets inside broader expansion cycles. --- 3. The Real Driver: QE vs QT QE expands the monetary base. QT contracts it. Bitcoin thrives when: * Liquidity expands * Financial conditions ease * Risk appetite increases Bitcoin struggles when: * Liquidity contracts * Yields rise * Risk assets get repriced When you overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the correlation is hard to ignore. This is not about a calendar. It is about capital flows. --- 4. The Critical Question Now The real question is not: “Is the 4 year cycle broken?” The real question is: Will Central Banks turn the liquidity taps back on like they did in: * 2012–2013 * 2016–2017 * 2020–2021 If we see a shift from QT back into meaningful QE, history suggests Bitcoin and the broader crypto market respond aggressively. If liquidity remains tight, rallies may be capped and volatility may persist. --- 5. Strategic Takeaway If you are serious about understanding Bitcoin’s macro structure, you cannot just count waves or track halvings. You need to watch: * Central Bank balance sheets * Global liquidity aggregates * Treasury issuance and absorption * Real rates * Dollar strength Bitcoin is maturing. It is no longer purely a retail driven narrative asset. It is increasingly sensitive to global liquidity cycles. The next major move will not be decided by a block reward reduction. It will be decided by liquidity. That is what determines whether this current drawdown is a mid cycle correction… or something larger. And that is where your focus should be.“
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lupin 2 months ago
Great insight from Robert Kiyosaki (source: FB group) „THE NEXT GLOBAL SHORTAGE WON’T BE OIL. IT WON’T BE GOLD. IT WILL BE COPPER. And almost nobody is prepared for it. For decades, copper was treated as a boring industrial metal. Wires. Pipes. Construction. That era is over. Copper is quietly becoming one of the most strategic materials in the world, and the numbers make that very clear. HERE’S THE REAL SUPPLY–DEMAND PROBLEM Global copper demand is projected to rise from about 28 million tonnes today to roughly 42 million tonnes by 2040. That’s not speculation. That growth is being driven by three unstoppable forces: - Electrification - Digital infrastructure - Energy transition Electric vehicles use several times more copper than combustion engines. Power grids need massive copper upgrades. Renewables are copper-intensive. And AI data centers are copper-hungry on a scale most people don’t understand yet. AI-related copper demand alone is expected to grow by over 120%, reaching around 2.5 million tonnes by 2040. That’s just one sector. NOW LOOK AT SUPPLY Copper supply is not growing the same way. Global production is expected to peak around 34 million tonnes near 2030, then gradually decline to around 32 million tonnes by 2040. Why? Because copper mining is: - Capital-intensive - Slow to permit - Environmentally constrained - Geopolitically sensitive New discoveries are smaller. Grades are lower. Projects take a decade or more to bring online. You can’t flip a switch and create copper. PUT THOSE TWO LINES TOGETHER Demand by 2040: ~42 million tonnes Supply by 2040: ~32 million tonnes That’s a potential deficit of roughly 10 million tonnes. About one-third of today’s entire global copper demand. That’s not a cycle. That’s a structural shortage. WHY ASIA MATTERS MOST Asia is expected to account for around 60% of global copper demand growth. China, India, Southeast Asia — all expanding grids, cities, EV adoption, and digital infrastructure at the same time. Once infrastructure is built, copper is locked in place for decades. That metal doesn’t come back to market easily. My rich dad taught me: “Watch what the world cannot function without — not what’s popular.” No electricity without copper. No data centers without copper. No EVs without copper. No modern grid without copper. Copper is not optional. It’s foundational. WHY COPPER IS BECOMING STRATEGIC When a resource is: - Essential - Hard to replace - Slow to expand And demanded by governments, not just consumers, It stops behaving like a commodity. It starts behaving like a strategic asset. That’s why nations are paying attention. That’s why supply chains are being rethought. That’s why long-term pricing power shifts. This isn’t about chasing prices. It’s about understanding where pressure builds before headlines appear. Copper isn’t running out tomorrow. But the world is building a future that requires far more copper than it can easily produce. And history shows one thing very clearly: When demand is unavoidable and supply is constrained, price is just the messenger. The real story is scarcity. And copper is quietly becoming one of the most important scarcity stories of the next 20 years.“ #kiyosaki #copper
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lupin 2 months ago
Insightful & entertaining interview of Preston Byrne by @walker focussing on the many attempts by the UK and the EU to impose UK and EU restrictions, respectively, on US companies. Love the story about the US waiting for UK to send over troops to enforce their laws, and the reminder that the last time this happened it ended in a resounding British defeat… Great fun to listen, but even greater work being done by Preston and his team! Keep up the good work, all of you! View quoted note →