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Paul Sernine
lupin@nostrcheck.me
npub1p9v2...ae5w
Don’t trust, verify. Patience is a virtue. 2C9F 255D 6FE1 B572 9226 BE7D CCFB B6AF 3CF8 03EE #nostr since 775029
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lupin 2 days ago
Thank you to @Jake Woodhouse for another great & inspiring interview, this time with @npub1eawxwqldulz8rn80jug6n63seyn8pwelm9mmu7rdt622lfj7am9qgem0rx ! Highly recommended episode and, of course, podcast series! Kudos to both of you for your dedicated work!
Fountain
The Jake Woodhouse Podcast • Applying Daoism - Scott Dedels (JWP112) • Watch on Fountain
In this episode I spoke with Scott Dedels—author of The Dao of Bitcoin and founder of Block Rewards—who's delved deep into how Daoist think...
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lupin 6 days ago
Some insight from Craig Tapping (on FB): „Bitcoin Cycles: Forget the 4 Year Myth. Follow the Liquidity. For years, the dominant narrative has been the “Bitcoin 4 year cycle” tied to halvings. It sounds clean. It feels predictable. It gives people comfort. But when you step back and overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the pattern becomes much clearer and far more powerful. Now let’s break this down properly. --- 1. Market Tops: Liquidity Tightening, Not Halvings Look at the major cycle peaks: * 2013–2014 * 2017–2018 * 2021–2022 Each of these tops formed as: * Inflation became overheated * QE stopped * Central Banks switched back to QT * Liquidity rolled over That is the consistent pattern. Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge. When global liquidity contracts, speculative assets struggle. Every single major top aligns with tightening conditions. It is not the halving that kills the bull run. It is the withdrawal of liquidity. --- 2. Mid Cycle Corrections: The Liquidity Pivot Now look at the mid cycle drawdowns: * 2015 correction: roughly 48% * 2019–2020 correction: roughly 72% * Current drawdown: roughly 52% What happened during those moments? Central Banks ended QT. Liquidity stopped falling. A transition toward QE began. These corrections were violent, but they happened at liquidity inflection points. That matters. These were not random crashes. They were liquidity resets inside broader expansion cycles. --- 3. The Real Driver: QE vs QT QE expands the monetary base. QT contracts it. Bitcoin thrives when: * Liquidity expands * Financial conditions ease * Risk appetite increases Bitcoin struggles when: * Liquidity contracts * Yields rise * Risk assets get repriced When you overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the correlation is hard to ignore. This is not about a calendar. It is about capital flows. --- 4. The Critical Question Now The real question is not: “Is the 4 year cycle broken?” The real question is: Will Central Banks turn the liquidity taps back on like they did in: * 2012–2013 * 2016–2017 * 2020–2021 If we see a shift from QT back into meaningful QE, history suggests Bitcoin and the broader crypto market respond aggressively. If liquidity remains tight, rallies may be capped and volatility may persist. --- 5. Strategic Takeaway If you are serious about understanding Bitcoin’s macro structure, you cannot just count waves or track halvings. You need to watch: * Central Bank balance sheets * Global liquidity aggregates * Treasury issuance and absorption * Real rates * Dollar strength Bitcoin is maturing. It is no longer purely a retail driven narrative asset. It is increasingly sensitive to global liquidity cycles. The next major move will not be decided by a block reward reduction. It will be decided by liquidity. That is what determines whether this current drawdown is a mid cycle correction… or something larger. And that is where your focus should be.“
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lupin 2 weeks ago
Great insight from Robert Kiyosaki (source: FB group) „THE NEXT GLOBAL SHORTAGE WON’T BE OIL. IT WON’T BE GOLD. IT WILL BE COPPER. And almost nobody is prepared for it. For decades, copper was treated as a boring industrial metal. Wires. Pipes. Construction. That era is over. Copper is quietly becoming one of the most strategic materials in the world, and the numbers make that very clear. HERE’S THE REAL SUPPLY–DEMAND PROBLEM Global copper demand is projected to rise from about 28 million tonnes today to roughly 42 million tonnes by 2040. That’s not speculation. That growth is being driven by three unstoppable forces: - Electrification - Digital infrastructure - Energy transition Electric vehicles use several times more copper than combustion engines. Power grids need massive copper upgrades. Renewables are copper-intensive. And AI data centers are copper-hungry on a scale most people don’t understand yet. AI-related copper demand alone is expected to grow by over 120%, reaching around 2.5 million tonnes by 2040. That’s just one sector. NOW LOOK AT SUPPLY Copper supply is not growing the same way. Global production is expected to peak around 34 million tonnes near 2030, then gradually decline to around 32 million tonnes by 2040. Why? Because copper mining is: - Capital-intensive - Slow to permit - Environmentally constrained - Geopolitically sensitive New discoveries are smaller. Grades are lower. Projects take a decade or more to bring online. You can’t flip a switch and create copper. PUT THOSE TWO LINES TOGETHER Demand by 2040: ~42 million tonnes Supply by 2040: ~32 million tonnes That’s a potential deficit of roughly 10 million tonnes. About one-third of today’s entire global copper demand. That’s not a cycle. That’s a structural shortage. WHY ASIA MATTERS MOST Asia is expected to account for around 60% of global copper demand growth. China, India, Southeast Asia — all expanding grids, cities, EV adoption, and digital infrastructure at the same time. Once infrastructure is built, copper is locked in place for decades. That metal doesn’t come back to market easily. My rich dad taught me: “Watch what the world cannot function without — not what’s popular.” No electricity without copper. No data centers without copper. No EVs without copper. No modern grid without copper. Copper is not optional. It’s foundational. WHY COPPER IS BECOMING STRATEGIC When a resource is: - Essential - Hard to replace - Slow to expand And demanded by governments, not just consumers, It stops behaving like a commodity. It starts behaving like a strategic asset. That’s why nations are paying attention. That’s why supply chains are being rethought. That’s why long-term pricing power shifts. This isn’t about chasing prices. It’s about understanding where pressure builds before headlines appear. Copper isn’t running out tomorrow. But the world is building a future that requires far more copper than it can easily produce. And history shows one thing very clearly: When demand is unavoidable and supply is constrained, price is just the messenger. The real story is scarcity. And copper is quietly becoming one of the most important scarcity stories of the next 20 years.“ #kiyosaki #copper
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lupin 3 weeks ago
Insightful & entertaining interview of Preston Byrne by @walker focussing on the many attempts by the UK and the EU to impose UK and EU restrictions, respectively, on US companies. Love the story about the US waiting for UK to send over troops to enforce their laws, and the reminder that the last time this happened it ended in a resounding British defeat… Great fun to listen, but even greater work being done by Preston and his team! Keep up the good work, all of you!
Fountain
THE Bitcoin Podcast • 4chan Lawyer: How America Is Pushing Back Against UK & EU Censorship | Preston Byrne • Watch on Fountain
Preston Byrne is a technology and free-speech lawyer who’s been on the front lines of a growing international battle over online speech. We dig i...
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lupin 1 month ago
Some current insight into Silver Eagle coins and the US Mint‘s decision to reprice them from Robert Kiyosaki (posted on FB): „THE U.S. MINT JUST DID SOMETHING THAT SHOULD MAKE EVERY SILVER INVESTOR PAY ATTENTION The U.S. Mint didn’t “run out” of silver this week. They stopped selling Silver Eagles… then reopened sales at much higher prices. Why? Because the old prices no longer reflected reality. Silver Eagles that were effectively selling around $90–$95 per ounce were suddenly repriced closer to $170+ per ounce once sales resumed. That’s an 82% jump. And it tells you far more than any headline about “spot silver.” HERE’S WHAT MOST PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND: The paper price of silver and the price of real, deliverable silver are not the same thing anymore. The U.S. Mint doesn’t speculate. They source metal, strike coins, and sell into real demand. When they pause sales to reprice, it means one thing: The physical market broke away from the paper market. That gap doesn’t close because premiums come down. It closes because reality catches up. WHY SILVER IS ALWAYS THE FIRST TO SNAP: Silver isn’t just money. It’s an industrial metal. It’s used in: • Solar panels • EVs • Electronics • Medical equipment • Defense systems You don’t recycle it easily. You don’t substitute it cheaply. And above ground supply is far smaller than people think. Gold gets hoarded. Silver gets consumed. That’s why silver shortages show up suddenly — and violently. My rich dad taught me: “When governments print money, they create scarcity elsewhere.” Silver has been money for thousands of years. But today, it’s also critical infrastructure. That makes it dangerous to ignore. And powerful to own. The U.S. Mint didn’t raise prices because of emotion. They raised prices because they had to. Because replacing inventory at yesterday’s prices no longer made sense. That’s not manipulation. That’s supply and demand — in the real world. Paper silver trades on screens. Physical silver trades on availability. When official mints stop selling… then reopen at dramatically higher prices… They’re telling you something important: Silver isn’t expensive. Paper money is getting cheaper. And history says silver notices first.“ #silver #silvereagle #usmint
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lupin 1 month ago
GM & PV fellow nostriches ☕️☀️Have a great & relaxing weekend everyone 🫂💜🧡 #coffeechain #plebchain
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lupin 1 month ago
Thx to @TC for reminding us of this gem: image
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