Although I do follow your containment hypothesis as pretty likely, I also think retail demand will be near zero once the prices doesn't blow off sometimes. What will make the price go up when retail lost appetite?
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Retail demand increasingly matters less and less in a Paperized, Post-ETF environment.
Post-ETF: CME futures + ETF creations/redemptions + dealer gamma do the heavy lifting.
Now, advisors/RIAs/401k money -> systematic DCA, less forced selling, but more correlation to real yields/tech.
If retail wants more volatility, they will chase penny Bitcoin treasury stocks or will lever up in other ways.
For retail to matter more, people have to start self-custodying and stop buying paper products (especially ones that don't provide proof of reserves) and I don't see that happening any time soon.
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