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But adjusted so that the fresh supply remains constant, right? 3.125 every 10 minutes on average?

I think the point is… Hash rate = fn (BTCprice, ElectricCost, MiningRigCost) I don’t know what that formula is but in general terms examples are… BTC price goes up - more miners join in Electric cost goes up - miners shut down or move Mining rigs are cheaper to buy - new miners join the fray. There will be a momentum factor in the formula: eg: miners don’t go bust overnight but can run on reserves for a while, it takes a while for new mining rigs to reach market, etc