11.22.63 on Netflix might be one of the best time travel tv shows out there. it came out in 2016 and i have no idea how i missed it until now. 10/10

by the end of 2030 ai will achieve a level of intelligence greater than the combined intelligence ever created by the entire human race. current models are incredibly premature compared to what we’ll have in just 5 years. 1) gpt4 to claude to gemini happened in like 18 months. we went from kinda useful to holy shit in like less time than it takes to get a driver’s license renewed. 2) moore’s law is dead but something weirder replaced it. algorithmic efficiency is doubling every 8 to 10 months. same compute, dramatically smarter models. we’re not just scaling. we’re discovering new architectures. 3) intelligence isn’t additive. it’s multiplicative. 1 einstein > 10k avg physicists. ai doesnt just add human equivalent minds. it creates something qualitatively different. 4) the entire sum of human knowledge. every book, paper, conversation, discovery. took 300k yrs to accumulate. an agi system will be able to process and synthesize all of it in hrs. then build on top of it. 5) we measure human intelligence in individual lifetimes. 80 yrs max of learning per person. ai systems run 24/7 don’t forget, dont get tired, dont die. a single year of ai development = centuries of equivalent human cognitive work. 6) current llms are like calculators in 1970. useful but obviously primitive. we’re still figuring out basic architecture. attention mechanisms are barely 7 yrs old. transformers might be our vacuum tubes. 7) the scariest and also the most exciting part? we don’t fully understand why these things work as well as they do. emergence keeps surprising us. capabilities appear that werent trained for. we’re building minds we can’t fully explain. 8) biological intelligence took 4b+ yrs of evolution. digital intelligence is iterating on timescales of months. evolution is a drunk walk through possibility space. 9) by 2030 we wont just have smarter chatbots. we’ll have systems that can do novel science prove new theorems design their own successors. the last human designed ai might already exist.

ok i’ll bite. nostr feels absolutely dead. it’s not just me. a lot of accounts i try to keep up with are constantly posting and getting almost no engagement. maybe it's time to be honest and actually think about whats going wrong instead of trying to create fake hype. there i said it.

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s&p 500’s avg annual return has been around 8–9%, which roughly matches annual money supply growth. thats likely about to change in a big way. over the next 10–15 yrs, we’ll probably see several years where the s&p 500 grows 40–50% in a single year. in that kind of environment, it’s reasonable to assume btc could easily match that or even double it.

watched boston dynamics’ new atlas for a few mins today. human evolution took about 2m yrs from homo habilis to now and it’s still an ongoing process. meanwhile these robots basically started a few yrs ago and are already pulling off incredible hand movements and hands are the hardest part. replicating hands means solving high dof control tactile sensing real time feedback loops and motor precision all at once. kinda wild to think where they’ll be in 20/30 yrs with ai accelerating exponentially.

looks like both karpathy and elon are saying the singularity is finally getting close. i mean very close probably within the next 12 months or so. if that’s true, by the end of 2030, 5 to 10m bitcoin doesn’t sound crazy at all. when everything becomes abundant and money gets easier as a consequence, scarcity is what ends up mattering most.

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happy new year fam. wishing everyone health, peace, and prosperity.

Merry Zetahash Christmas. 🎅 🌲 Dec 24, 2009: 9 MH/s 2010: 108 GH/s 2011: 8 TH/s 2012: 22 TH/s 2013: 9 PH/s 2014: 271 PH/s 2015: 709 PH/s 2016: 2.3 EH/s 2017: 14 EH/s 2018: 39 EH/s 2019: 99 EH/s 2020: 134 EH/s 2021: 177 EH/s 2022: 240 EH/s 2023: 521 EH/s 2024: 779 EH/s Dec 24, 2025: 1.1 ZH/s