money supply grows 8–9% a year. the s&p 500 goes up 8–9% a year on avg.

today fixed income bros became convinced that their strc dividends will be paid in perpetuity. markets always have interesting ways of testing the waters.

friday 🍺

son’s gettin’ a bit more organized.

china will have to print a lot more to keep up with the us in the ai race. with gov debt now above 100% of gdp and japan already around 250%+ the ai race is becoming a debt race. orange bit for the win.

i own exactly zero shares of mstr or strc. i’ve never bought a bitcoin proxy. never met saylor or even seen him in person but i’ll say this. nobody has put more skin in the game for bitcoin than saylor. all these keyboard maximalists attacking him are full of shit. hand 99.9% of them a $1 million check on the condition they never touch bitcoin again and they’d sign it before the ink dried.

the ugly truth is that the 4 yr cycle was created and practiced by the ogs. they tend to think together and act together. this time though their usual playbook didn’t work. their avg distribution was probably around 80–85k. (yes they sell and buy gradually not all at once). they were likely expecting to buy back much lower somewhere around 20-25k. that didn’t happen thanks to a much stronger base of long term individual bitcoiners, plus relentless buying from saylor and a growing number of public companies. of course they’re not happy. thats also why you see so much coordinated hostility toward saylor. he’s disrupting the cycle they’ve benefited from for years.

saylor only fails if bitcoin fails. i know thats hard for some people to accept but thats the reality since the guy controls 4% of the network. maybe it’s time to stop harassing bitcoiners who happen to run public companies.

office hours 🎣

i just learned that $1 out of every $70 in stablecoins is frozen. 🫪

office hours 🎣

but ai, but deflation, but no inflation 🤣

if i had control over primal’s roadmap, i’d remove everything else from the list and fix the cache problem first. no new user is going to put up with that shit.

and no, they won’t take out saylor. not here, not even at $15k. hate all you want, corporates have every right to stack sats just like you stack gor your family. if anything, they’ll keep buying while everyone else is panicking.

i thought they’d push it up to 70-71k to lure in more bulls. the fact they didn’t tells me they don’t have much patience which usually means they don’t have a lot of bullets left.

office hours 🎣

imo bottom is pretty close. even if it goes another 10k, the risk/reward ratio is incredible even for traders. and damn you 4-yr cycle. works like a clockwork.

wen sat/cent parity?