Thread

It’s at 1 and it’s been negative more than once. This is gonna trap some bulls expecting the moon.

🤞

Some - but I think enough are skittish after the recent price action since the big liquidation in October...and some feel that whales carry enough weight with their trading to make the 4-yr cycle self-fulfilling. So they do not want to over-lever going into 2026. Just keep buying the dip. Unfortunately, I'm down to nibbling at ETFs...and some MSTR/ASST...with my IRA because I have NO cash left.

Yes proceed with caution for now

I think we’ve bottomed but that doesn’t mean we can’t go back towards that bottom trapping leveraged shorts before properly spiking up

Any spike up is going to be met with increased selling this feels more like a relief rally than a reversal. Shorts and sellers looking for more favourable prices before offloading more. There is going to be more pain ahead.

Low liquidity during the holidays price is pumped, maybe stops short of 100k.

I think we could as high as 105 before we continue downward.

It’s important to understand I’m a bitcoin supremacist. I will follow trends and such to align with the best time to stack hardest. Never short bitcoin.

Ill short sats to get more sats

Maybe. They did just come out with the eSLR news on Tuesday that is still very much making the rounds. We could instead have one hell of a CME gap. But given that news alone doesn't boost liquidity we may get some more downside first. I hope the sale's not over before it's even Black Friday...

Santa rally 🎅📈

Bad time to be betting on the FoUr YeAr CyClE if you ask me...

🤣 ok Mr SUPERCYCLE

No new all time highs until next year

There are perfectly reasonable things to point to as likely causes for the prior bull runs which coincided with the years following the halving that just don't go on in perpetuity. The two big ones are the halving itself (reducing in effect exponentially with each epoch) and the debt refinancing cycle, as the 3-5 year corporate debt cycle got largely synchronized in 2008 when rates dropped to zero (which impacted broader liquidity with a heartbeat averaging around those 4 year periods). At this point 95% of coins have been issued, while institutional buying has turned new supply all but undetectable. Meanwhile the post COVID turbulence around interest rates has somewhat broken that side of things. I'm not saying we're going up constantly here, so I don't like the supercycle narrative as it seems reductionist. But the four year cycle seems to draw a trend from too few data points, on top of those points being seen to have been caused by factors that don't apply. Throw in the changes to the eSLR the other day and the idea of an impending bear market seems akin to flat Earth dogma.

I understand the reasons that could break the 4 year cycle but until it is invalidated it still holds true, so far the price action is consistent with a 4 year cycle so it is holding up. There is no dogma to it is based on price and structure.

You're saying its a wave; I'm saying its a particle. Guess there's some of both if we allow for silly human superstitious pattern recognition to self fulfill. I'll take the sale anyway, but I'm not counting on institutions to adhere to the same superstitions as the plebs. They may well use them against us though to shake coins out, much like Columbus predicting the eclipse...

Probably no maybe about it given what we've seen from JPM this past week.

I guess bear markets are a thing of the past /s Either way I am good, long or short, more sats will be stacked