The odds of it failing are definitely much bigger than those of it succeeding, not even Paul denies that.
But what do we lose by trying? Drivechain has zero chance of being activated on Bitcoin today anyway.
If eCash gets even a little bit of usage that may be enough to test Drivechain with real money and convince miners to MASF it into Bitcoin (Core will never do it, but CUSF solves that).
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Why didn’t he chose the classical ICO way with a fresh new coin ?
And also how such a MASF wouldn’t be purely a 51% attack risking to harm bitfoin more than solving any problem we may supposedly have ?
If they did the same thing except stealing satoshi coins for themselves, the fork would have much higher chance to succeed.
This not only discredits the fork for many (most?) people but also adds instant sell pressure from insiders.
Yerp, and that will cause another fork, splitting the few who would get behind the paul-fork