Certainly your analogy on this applies on the O.S.s too
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kinda.
OSs are really mature at this point, and we're reaching points where even paid ones are just going down hill with free ones going up hill.
If I had to guess, the niceness levels of Linux will continue to rise, resulting in a continue rise of adoption from 3% (right now, which was 1.something last year) to 20% probably by 2030 to 2050, increasing at an increasing rate where we'd hit 30% to 50% of the market by 2030 to 2080 (again, i'm just guessing here).