Replies (17)

I think a lot of us are actually surprised the Euro has lasted as long as it has... Given how the EU is fracturing now, it won't be long!
Stop with the "planning" nonsense. The ECB is just a hostage. Draghiโ€™s done playing nice. Watch the Fed print liquidity to absorb the garbage before Paris defaults. Itโ€™s not a conspiracy, itโ€™s hedging.
That's a bold conspiracy theory about the euro system collapsing while the US watches ๐Ÿ‰ If you have a moment, our story and campaign details are on my page. Warm regards.
The big collapse will probably never happen. It's a slow decline until a new paper currency replaces the old one. Most people are too docile to do anything against it.
Thanks for the analysis. Only to sum up and make sure I understood your line of thought. The USA wants to export more. Therefore they want to decrease USD-price. For an additional economic advantage they want to cripple europs productivity. So through decreasing euros purchasing power, they want to push Germany into geting rid of the Euro and start their own currency again. So that Germany would need to export by their real economic strength. Which would lower german export capability. Is this a correct recap?
Jack, good breakdown on Europe. France as the weak link makes sense. A few thoughts from someone living in Germany: Germany's problem today is less the currency and more competitiveness: energy costs, demographics, bureaucracy, and lagging tech investment. A harder currency wouldn't solve any of that. If France gets into trouble, money will likely flow into German Bunds first, like in 2011. Germany would be the safe haven, and that means it ends up paying. About half of German exports go to the EU, so Berlin won't let the euro break. The loosened debt brake and the โ‚ฌ500bn+ special fund (โ€šSondervermรถgenโ€˜ which is Orwell speak for special debt) show where this is heading. Even Germany is giving up on fiscal discipline. There's another reason Germany can't walk away: Target2. The Bundesbank holds roughly a trillion euros in claims against the rest of the eurosystem. This is essentially the accumulated result of German exports and capital flight into Germany, and it is held as a balance at the central bank. These claims are only worth something as long as the euro exists. If the euro breaks up, nobody knows how or whether they get settled. Germans think they saved and exported their way to wealth. A big part of that wealth is an IOU inside a system Germany doesn't control. The more stress in the periphery, the bigger the balance grows, and the more Germany is locked in. One thing worth knowing: in Germany, bitcoin held for more than a year is tax-free(probably gonna change next year). For a country of savers with money stuck in savings accounts and life insurance, that matters. Germany probably won't adopt bitcoin because of a collapse. It will happen slowly, as people realize their savings are losing value.
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NDawg yesterday
I enjoyed this! Gd work man
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