I feel like I am already too late to the game too. :/ How much would you say is a meaningful amount?? Just curious cause I hear a lot of different numbers around this.

Like it says in my profile, I feel like I'm late to bitcoin too @Troy Thompson . 👊 The average teacher in my kid's school district is 40. At most they can save 6k a year. While they get a salary increase each year, that won't keep up with inflation. Now, where my kids go to school there are tons of ways for them to make money in the summer, but lets assume they don't do that. I believe in the Power Curve (Power Law) and I very much like the Bitcoin 1 Million site - link below - to model out the price. You can look at where we'll be in 60 days, where we'll be in in 5 years, and even where we could be in 2045. I used data from the website, and then assumed that they'll get a small raise each year. And the news is GOOD!!! Over 20 years they can go from 0.0 to 0.316575. However they're going to need to get convicted this year or next year, and they're going to have to go all-in. Here's the math that supports what I said above: The First 4 Years: 2025-2028 2025 (age 40): 23.1% of total stack 2026 (age 41): 17.0% of total stack 2027 (age 42): 12.8% of total stack 2028 (age 43): 9.7% of total stack Combined 2025-2028: 62.5% of total Bitcoin. What I was not accounting for is that teachers have very good retirements. But there's multiple states where the retirements funds have been scaled back by the state government. Here's one more piece of data. Let's say somebody is not convicted until Bitcoin passes the $200,000 mark. So they don't buy until 2028, but then they go all in (not likely they'd go all in if they sat on the sidelines 2025-2027, but it makes our math simpler). They would have half as much Bitcoin 20 years from now. Miss 2025-2027 and you've made a huge error. The bottom line is my comment was simplistic and more doomsday, yet the math of getting 63.5% of a stack in the first 4 years of a 20 year timeframe is true.

Bitcoin Power Law Curve - B1M.io

Interactive Bitcoin Power Law calculator showing when Bitcoin reaches $1 Million. Track projected prices from 2009 to 2045 based on the power law m...

Wow! Thanks for the detailed response. Appreciated your breakdown of the numbers. It totally makes sense what you are saying. I’ve never seen that site before. I think I am on the right track but still thinking I am too late to stack enough to be meaningful. I am going to try and keep stacking as much as I can but what would you say is the minimum stack that would still be meaningful?? I’ve heard 0.21, 0.1, or even 0.01. Thoughts?

I can't tell you what's right for you, Troy, but I can tell you what I'm doing. My guess is I'm a little bit older than you - back nine. And I'm going to work as hard as I possibly can and physically can until 2030, because the window is closing. And I think psychologically it's easier to look at a 5-year chunk than something like a 10- or 20-year chunk. I also have a job that even if I leverage AI well, the current business will be eaten up by AI. Based on my situation with my kids, I'm going to need to live in a really high cost of living area during these next five years. If I had the ability to move my family to some place that costs less, I would do it in a heartbeat. So where I live, the stack you need 10-20 years from now is going to be higher than other places in the United States. I haven't been in Bitcoin that long, but one of the coolest things is that every time I have a little extra money, I just go to @River and buy some. I'm always surprised some number of months later the stack if worth quite a bit more in fiat. Staying humble and stacking really does seem like the way. They have really nice DCA options. And I forgot to include this in the original writing, which is the most important thing! Here's what 0.3166 BTC 20 years from now is going to be... Bitcoin price: roughly $9,000,000 Started in 2025 (Age 40) Total invested: $166,993 BTC accumulated: 0.3166 BTC Portfolio value: $2,849,175 😀 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Waited Until 2028 (Age 43) Total invested: $148,349 BTC accumulated: 0.1492 BTC Portfolio value: $1,343,214 The Cost of Waiting You saved $18,645 by waiting 3 years. It cost you $1,505,961 at age 60. You end up with 52.9% less Bitcoin and your portfolio is $1.5 million smaller. 😬

I understand. You’re right, It totally depends on each persons situation. I am just going to keep stacking as much as I can and go from there. I really am curious to see where this thing goes. 👍🏻 Thanks again for all your feedback!

I wrote this note last night and on further reflection it’s only half right. Two long replies below explain what’s incorrect and what’s like correct. It was a lot of fun to do the math and interact with a couple AI models. View quoted note →