"you would expect to see..." - this is about the percentage of adult male deaths you would expect to see in a given age range. "It's 72% in that age range" is the actual percentage seen in that age range. that's how I understand the quote, mechanically. in that understanding, Todd isn't lying. he may be wrong and horrible about everything else, and if you want to call him out on those I won't even have a comment. but in my reading of that quote and his reference to it, your accusation that he's lying about it is a cheap and incorrect shot and it doesn't inspire onlookers to take you seriously. that is the extent of my position here so don't take this as an endorsement of anything.