I think there’s bound to be some action some time after halving either way. E.g., a self fulfilling prophecy. But we do need to keep the macro view in mind, as that determines where the equilibrium of reduced-supply bitcoin would be.

By the time we get to mid 2024 the liquidity situation could be a lot different. Too early to say on timing now. Could have the halving followed by better liquidity, and thus have another one of those rocket fuel bull runs into 2025.

I think that is probably about right for how much of the supply of dollars that they have to burn before the money gets back into sync with commodity demand. And yep, this time is different, previously on logarithmic scaling it has looked like bitcoin has been wilting, but that's just because the economy is tanking. A rocket fuel powered race for dollar hedges once the spigot starts up again seems very likely indeed.

The last ATH was a good while after the halving. So I’d expect it to break 69k late 2924 at the earliest or some time in 2025.

US elections next year too (probably UK also)...

Doesn’t SP500 also follow M2 Money Supply?

1. **Correlation ≠ Causation**: Even if the S&P 500 and the M2 Money Supply have moved in tandem over certain periods, it doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other. There could be third factors influencing both or the correlation could be coincidental. 2. **Potential Mechanism**: An increase in the money supply can lead to lower interest rates, which in turn can make borrowing cheaper for companies and consumers. Cheaper borrowing can stimulate economic activity and boost corporate profits, which could potentially drive stock prices higher. Additionally, lower interest rates can make bonds and other fixed-income assets less attractive relative to stocks, leading to increased demand for equities. 3. **Inflation Considerations**: An increase in the money supply can also lead to inflationary pressures. While in the short term, inflation might not have a direct negative impact on stock prices, prolonged periods of high inflation can erode purchasing power and impact corporate profitability. 4. **Other Factors**: The stock market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including but not limited to corporate earnings, geopolitical events, technological innovations, and investor sentiment. The money supply is just one of many factors that can influence the direction of stock prices. 5. **Empirical Observations**: Over the past several decades, there have been periods where the growth of the M2 Money Supply and the performance of the S&P 500 seemed to correlate. Especially during periods of aggressive monetary policy interventions, such as the Quantitative Easing programs post the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a noticeable increase in both the money supply and stock market valuations. 6. **Long-Term vs. Short-Term**: While there might be short-term correlations, over longer periods, the relationship might not hold as consistently. Factors like technological advancements, demographic shifts, and changing global dynamics can play a more dominant role in shaping stock market performance over the long run.