Lyn Alden's avatar
Lyn Alden lyn@primal.net 2 years ago
Not great in the near term. The combination of the Fed doing QT, the Treasury shifting towards longer-duration bond issuance, and China running tight fiscal policy, are all liquidity negative. I think we grind for a while until something snaps in the Treasury market or something adjacent, and then we do the next leg up in liquidity. Liquidity bottomed back in Oct 2022 right after 1) the UK bond market outright broke and 2) the US bond market was really wobbly (bad liquidity, high volatility). That was fixed by the Treasury draining its cash account and shortening the duration of its bond issuance.
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npub1rxdg...na9d 2 years ago
Big bummer for those who expecting some action for the halving event in 2024..... So this time *is* different..... We will see. For me it does not really matter. Strong hands.
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xymor@iris.to 2 years ago
do you have a top 3 possible catalysts for the crash that can finally break the camel's back? there are so many piling up, china slow down, Ua war, BoJ, CRE...
Toby McMann's avatar
Toby McMann 2 years ago
When we think about global liquidity, am I right in saying China's M2 is greater than the US? And, isn't China encouraging loans and growth in money supply at present?
Trey Walsh 's avatar
Trey Walsh treywalsh@primal.net 2 years ago
What could be very tough to analyze in bitcoin is that, while we’re living in a very tight and low liquidity global market, those with liquidity or things to sell/swap, once they identify as NEEDING bitcoin in the face of growing economic, USD, global asset decay, all bets are off. Do we know what happened when oil became a commodity, regardless of global liquidity? I guess we also can have a tough time comparing bitcoin to any other money/commodity situation (gold perhaps, but trying to break down the history of when gold was deemed valuable and what happened there we just don’t have data for going back hundreds and hundreds of years).
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