“If the pattern holds — and there is no guarantee it will — global M2 may be approaching a cyclical peak sometime in the coming weeks or months. Or maybe it just did in February 2026. Bitcoin, it appears, already knew.” 👀

Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook — Issue #2 Follow the Liquidity

"Give me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws." — attributed to Mayer Amschel Rothschild

Early WW3 vibes.

Because I like you, here's a free glimpse of an amazing chart that I'm regularly watching... 👀 Three data lines are overlapping: 1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (multi-color line) 2. Global M2 (blue line) 3. Bitcoin price (red/green candles) I still believe that the unimpressive bitcoin price performance in 2025 resulted primarily from the lack of a positive US manufacturing cycle since 2021. Everything became distorted during the 2021 Covid-related, fiscal/monetary easing debacle, but cycles have a way of re-establishing themselves. ISM Manufacturing PMI is finally starting to recover. It will be interesting to see if the price of bitcoin responds in kind, as it (seemingly) has in the past. Not a prediction, just some observations. Cheers. 🍻

Issue #2 of the brand-new "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook" drops this Thursday, March 12th. 👀 Each issue: ~5 charts I'm actively watching as a fund manager, with commentary on what I think they're telling us. Macro, geopolitics, the occasional Bitcoin rant, and unsolicited health/wellness advice -- all included at no extra charge. 😁 If you missed Issue #1 -- the most important macro chart of the last 100 years -- you can read it here:

Dr. Jeff's Monthly Macro Chartbook — Issue #1 The Most Important Chart in the World Right Now

If you follow me on Nostr or have seen my prior YouTube interviews, you’ve probably heard me talk about this chart.

Note: I will never give individual investment advice. Don't ask. 😉

A systematic process is ♾️ better than a prediction.

I'm doing a new thing. On Substack. 👀 Hopefully, it will provide value to some of you!

Dr. Jeff's Monthly Macro Chartbook — Issue #1 The Most Important Chart in the World Right Now

If you follow me on Nostr or have seen my prior YouTube interviews, you’ve probably heard me talk about this chart.

Have you traded your savings account today, degen?

I recently received this good news from BarclayHedge about my little friends and family hedge fund: “Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked #1 in the Multi-Strategy - Past Three Years category for the 3rd Quarter, 2025.” I make lots of mistakes, but sometimes we get things right with our long-term systematic investment approach.

I don’t know about you , but I think it’s pretty wild to watch the post-WW2 geopolitical and financial world order fragment and reorganize in real time. 👀

Ozempic is the new Prozac.

John 14:27 [27] Peace I leave with you; my peace I give to you. Not as the world gives do I give to you. Let not your hearts be troubled, neither let them be afraid. - Jesus of Nazareth

Based on the amount of comments (primarily on YouTube) that I am a "moron" who should "stay in [my] lane" and not discuss geopolitics because I am "way out of [my] depth"... I would recommend that such folks take some time to actually read the National Security Strategy of the United States of America, which was published by the Whitehouse in November 2025. Afterwards, if you would like to have a civilized discussion about my misinterpretations of the Trump administration's geopolitical and military actions/intentions, I would be amenable. Here is a link for your ease: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

Another quarterly Mastermind banger with @preston , @HODL , and @Joe Carlasare ⚡ We discussed: - Venezuela - Taiwan/China - Restructuring of the geopolitical world order - Semiconductors - Elon Musk's predictions - The Clarity Act - US Treasury yields - Jerome Powell - Bitcoin

How different forms of "money" actually work over time: Government fiat currency: Pay more, get less. Gold: Pay about the same, get about the same. Bitcoin: Pay less, get more. -------- Choose your savings vehicle and financial ruler wisely.

Silver looking the most technically overbought at the moment. Time for market participants to rotate? 🤔

A fantastic and highly troubling article by Craig Tindale. Strong recommend. Shout-out to @Luke Gromen for the heads up to read it.

THE HARD BIFURCATION: The Convergence of Financial Liquidity and Physical Insolvency

January 6, 2026 Subject: Unrestricted Warfare in the Era of Stateful Existential Friction

Reality is starting to bite. “While the West financializes deficits, rivals industrialize surpluses.” - Aris Roussinos

“The marginal cost of intelligence is trending toward zero.“ - Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross

Suspected US foreign policy "interests" for possible/probable intervention (in no particular order) by 2028: 1. Venezuela ✅ 2. Colombia 3. Cuba 4. Greenland 5. Panama 6. Brazil 7. Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta 8. Guyana 9. Nicaragua 10. Bolivia 11. Multiple Caribbean island nations

I don’t come here as often these days, but it’s sad to see the rapidly rising large number of imposter accounts here on nostr. Yet another reason to spend less time on social media.