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Dr. Jeff
DrJeff@primal.net
npub1k7vk...c04l
Random pleb. Fund manager. Former physician. I'm mostly on Substack these days, writing Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook... come find me there! https://substack.com/@drjeffross - Macro - Charts - Bitcoin - Geopolitics - Often wrong - Random musings - Sometimes funny - Fund management insights - Never individual investment advice ** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund **
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Relentless Purchasing Power Progression. #Bitcoin #PowerLaw image
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DrJeff 1 year ago
I see three technological pillars upon which the Digital Age will grow and prosper... and utterly transform today's transitional (Analog-to-Digital) world into an almost unrecognizable state over the coming 10-15 years. - #ASI (for all) - #Robotics (for all) - #Bitcoin (for all) These are massive secular trends which only the most foolish will ignore and/or deny.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
A prediction, FWIW: Strategy is going to buy up most/all of their previously issued convertible stock in the coming quarters, which will greatly decrease future dilution risk to #MSTR shareholders. I think it is (will be) a good move. @npub15dql...lm5m Onward and upward.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Trying to quit social media altogether, but can't... cuz #nostr and... bored. AMA
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DrJeff 1 year ago
There is team Red and also team Blue. They exist for themselves and not for you. ———— Don’t kid yourself… or waste your time and efforts trying to fix them. Defund their violent and nefarious shenanigans. ———— They grow and prosper by stealing your hard-earned purchasing power via incessant currency debasement. ———— Take it back. #Bitcoin
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Hands down, peaches are the world’s best fruit. I will die on this hill.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Knowledge is increasingly overrated and commoditized... especially in the #AI Age. Pro tip: Get better at telling stories. Humans always have--and always will--enjoy a good story.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Healthy til 120-years old. (Like Moses) Who’s with me? 💪
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Happy Sunday, family. Touch some grass. 🧡
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Thoughts on Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCs) POSITIVES: 1. BTCs are inevitable at this point in monetary history. Many of us saw them coming many years ago. 2. BTCs put the theory of "Speculative Arbitrage" or "Speculative Attack" into practice. That is, they sell/short depreciating US dollars and go long/buy appreciating bitcoin. -- This is a *nearly* surefire way to increase purchasing power over time.. and will hasten the transfer of purchasing power from traditional fiat assets into the Bitcoin network. 3. Done well--by employing shrewd levels of leverage and well-constructed financial instruments at opportune times--BTCs may outperform bitcoin over a multi-year period. 4. Many current and future strategies of "mining fiat" by BTCs will perform well during a bull market, and should serve to increase "bitcoin yield" over time... benefitting bitcoin-focused shareholders. NEGATIVES: 1. The more BTCs that exist, the more downward pressure will build upon their respective mNAVs. 2. Many current and future strategies of "mining fiat" by BTCs will perform poorly during a bear market, likely resulting in extreme declines in share price and--more significantly--loss of balance sheet bitcoin via margin calls and/or outright sales to maintain solvency. 3. The management of many current and future BTCs will inevitably deploy "too much" leverage "too late" into a bull market and will put their operating company and bitcoin and shareholders at risk. 4. Poor management decisions and fees will lead to chronic underperformance of many BTCs. 5. Trusting BTC managers (and their custodians) to safely custody their (and their shareholders) bitcoin is its own risk over individual custody in cold storage. Though more convenient, there will be more points of failure. 6. Most importantly, Bitcoin isn't just some speculative fiat asset... IT IS, LITERALLY, A COMPLETELY NEW AND BETTER FORM OF MONEY, WITH IT'S OWN FINANCIAL ECOSYSTEM AND GLOBAL ECONOMY. Intertwining, fiat assets and Wall Street products with the Bitcoin monetary and financial network continues to empower and encourage the traditional fiat system, with its perverse incentives and power structures. -------- OPINION: I don't begrudge those OG Bitcoiners who are participating in BTCs... which seem to be the darlings of the current Bitcoin bull market. In fact, as a traditional hedge fund manager-turned-Bitcoiner, I have one foot in the fiat world and one foot in Bitcoin... so I am the Chief of Hypocrites. But I think that we--and future generations--would be best served by simply removing ourselves from the current fiat economy and focusing our TIME and ENERGY into building better products and services on the (completely separate and sustainable) Bitcoin network. This will hasten the separation of Money and State and will allow us to more quickly engineer a better tomorrow. -------- Just my two sats. Hope it helps. Onward and upward.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Happy Paper Bitcoin Summer. image
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DrJeff 1 year ago
My Three Burners Theory of #bitcoin bull market price action. Burner #1: Liquidity Current setting: Medium Burner #2: Economy Current setting: Low (but starting to rise? ... watch ISM data) Burner #3: Leverage Current setting: Low OPINION: We won't see an exponential move (ie, a "blow-off top") until all three burners are on High. image
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DrJeff 1 year ago
If you showed 100 Americans a picture of a steak vs a picture of a seed oil-laden protein bar, I’m guessing that at least 80% would choose the protein bar as the healthy option. Similarly, fried eggs vs a granola bar. Pseudo-nutrition marketing is extremely powerful and misleading. We’ve been seriously duped… much to our own detriment. Discuss.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Contrary to popular belief, even (especially?) among fellow healthcare workers... As a former radiologist, I can make the following generalizations about nutrition and the human body: Serious vegans: - Arteries: Little to no atherosclerotic plaque - Visceral fat: Minimal - Muscle mass: Minimal Serious carnivores: - Arteries: Little to no atherosclerotic plaque - Visceral fat: Minimal - Muscle mass: Moderate to large Standard American diet (most patients): - Arteries: Mild to severe levels of atherosclerotic plaque, often age-dependent - Visceral fat: Copious - Muscle mass: Minimal to moderate -------- You do you, but your body doesn't lie.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Ditch your (fiat) doctor? "Modern diet" often means modern disease. Funny how focusing on what humans ate for millennia (meat!) often reverses the damage done by new-fangled, chemical-laden, fiat "foods." Your gut knows. Your brain knows. Listen to them. #CarnivoreLife #ProcessedFoodIsntFood #OptimalHealth
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Actual: 15.9 Forecast: -1 Prior: -4 Philly Fed New Orders Actual: 18.4 Prior: 2.3 -------- FYI Philly Fed metrics front-run ISM Manufacturing, which is--at long last--beginning to heat up in 2H 2025... after nearly three years of contraction. This is Burner #2 beneath the bitcoin price cauldron. When it finally starts to heat up, so too will the fiat price of bitcoin. (Burner #1 is Global Liquidity. Burner #3 is Leverage.)
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DrJeff 1 year ago
If I'm not mistaken (and I often am), we are entering the "crypto season" portion of the bull market. Remember, proof of stake (PoS) crypto has nothing relevant to do with proof of work (PoW) Bitcoin, and has everything to do with the existing fiat system, from whence it came. Fiat-brains and crypto bros are one and the same. Both think that their system and products have intrinsic value and, correspondingly, both will use their waning purchasing power to drive up segments of their fiat/PoS crypto assets. Let them. They are speculating and gambling in a dying casino while we are building a better world for posterity. Some of these assets will even outperforming bitcoin for a season. That's okay. Be content with your situation and keep helping those around you, who are still blinded and influenced by the fiat-brains. Don't get in arguments or waste your time yelling at crypto bros. Take responsibility and do the work. This is what adults do while the children play and goof off. As @ODELL often says, "Stay humble and stack sats." Relax. Stay focused. Build. Bitcoin is better money for a better world. Onward and upward. GM.
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DrJeff 1 year ago
Raise your hand if you are a Bitcoin influencer and have not YET received a call to run a multi-billion dollar Bitcoin Treasury Company. This will help Wall Street figure out who’s left to choose from.
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