Re: oil in the mastermind discussion, the US actions in Venezuela are more related to them posturing against Guyana in a border dispute in which Venezuela would seize the largest private (ExxonMobil) oil discovery in the last 4 decades. It’s much higher quality crude than what Venezuela has within their borders. Oil price: in addition to poor demand globally, OPEC pumping is an attack on US manufacturing sector. Shale oil is much more expensive than conventional oil reserves and therefore not as profitable on a per bbl basis. Lower oil prices hurt the shale oil bbl produced in Texas much more than they hurt the OPEC/Russian producers. cc: @HODL @preston @Dr. Jeff

The conversation with @Matthew Mezinskis and @MartyBent was odd and confusing … (1) Networks and network effects are exponential and should not follow the power law. (2) Debt is a priority claim on assets & associated cash flow. Equity is a residual claim. (3) The interest rates for debt issued when bitcoin is successful would need to be equivalent to appreciation rate of bitcoin. (4) When the capital comes for bitcoin, it won’t follow the power law. And it won’t happen gradually. (5) Matthew has a lot of inconsistencies in his positioning. Anchoring on the Power Law but then struggling to reconcile and explain the implications of increased bitcoin adoption. Felt FUD-y after listening to it.

Tick tock, next block

Anyone know the targeted close date for Twenty One? Or at least a range? cc: @jack mallers

I’m not technically proficient enough to fully understand the drama unfolding with bitcoin core. I just bought a higher capacity hard drive for my node.

How are publicly traded miners staying solvent right now? Absolutely nuts how the hashrate is dislocating from the price. So many legacy PPA contracts have to be getting close to being (or already are) unprofitable.

Japan should sell $100B of their US Treasuries and buy Bitcoin. Would be an important step to addressing their demographics catastrophe.

Bad news: For this bull market, the only catalyst that (likely) matters for an epic rip is the US Federal government’s bitcoin bill. If it passes, then game on to the mid six figures. If it doesn’t, we might be peaking in the high 100k and then entering into another flailing few years as the narrative seeks to coalesce. Good news: It seems like this administration knows that it needs bitcoin to catalyze an economic turnaround. Things aren’t going very good with continuing with the status quo.

MSTR is likely to announce a $6B+ profit for1Q25 … earnings call is May 1. The photo is what Google AI says analysts are expecting. 👀 🍿

Is this the quarter that Saylor and MSTR post their ridiculous bitcoin gains using the newly approved accounting technique? Through April 1, ~500,000 Bitcoin bought at an average purchase price of ~$65k/btc … price on March 31 was $81k/btc. Will they post a $8B quarterly profit for 1Q25? How will Wall Street react? Will they get into the S&P500?

How much should we trust Saylor? That’s the question top of my mind tonight…