New LNMS newsletter article:

War, Liquidity, and the Bitcoin Bear: Where We Really Are Now

Markets look calm, but underneath the surface war, oil, inflation, liquidity, and Bitcoin are all colliding. In this piece, we connect the dots and...

Most people are still baffled by the fact that equity markets are back to all-time highs! Well, let me tell you something: War headlines are not the primary force driving them any longer. We have moved on. Here's what you need to watch: -How much of the oil shock feeds through to inflation? -Will the Fed really look through it all? If so, real rates could tick lower -The dollar could tick lower as well -And the overall liquidity situation could stay supportive This is what we think markets are pricing right now! Does this mean Bitcoin will continue its run? Most likely not. There's still too much supply overhang and resistance at key levels. Instead of chasing the rally, watch these three bottom signals and these three possible ends to this bear (elaborated on in the article). To connect all the dots, read our latest piece:

LNMS Daily Briefing April 21 Global Macro: • Apr 20: The US seized an Iranian flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded by suspending planned talks, a sign the truce is fraying just as the next ceasefire deadline approaches. This matters because the market is repricing shipping risk faster than it is repricing diplomacy. • Apr 20: Brent crude rose more than 5% to about $95 a barrel as Hormuz disruption fears returned, and Citi said oil could reach $110 if the disruption lasts another month. That keeps the inflation impulse alive and argues against an easy restart of rate cut pricing. Bitcoin & Stablecoins: • April 21: Money, mostly stablecoins are currently leaving DeFi protocols at a breathtaking space, following the hacks on Aave (and Drift). Investors fear there could be an inflectipn point, also with AI innovation accelerating the potential for more hacks. • Apr 20: The BIS warned that stablecoins behave more like tradable financial assets than money and said fragmented rulemaking risks worsening market fragmentation. The message matters because stablecoin growth is now large enough to become a policy and market structure issue, not just a crypto issue. • Apr 20: Strategy bought 34,164 BTC for about $2.54 billion at roughly $74,395 per coin, lifting holdings to 815,061 BTC. It matters because corporate treasury demand is still absorbing supply even with macro volatility high. AI / Frontier Models: • Apr 20: Amazon said it will invest another $5 billion in Anthropic, with the broader deal rising to as much as $25 billion, while Anthropic committed to spend more than $100 billion on AWS and use 5 gigawatts of Amazon AI chip capacity. This is a clean signal that frontier AI competition is now being fought through infrastructure lock in as much as model quality. • Apr 20: Anthropic said it will keep access to its Mythos model tightly restricted because of cybersecurity risks tied to the model’s capabilities. That matters because safety constraints are starting to shape revenue timing and deployment strategy for frontier models. Polymarket Signal: • Global Macro: This market is about whether there will be no Fed cuts in 2026. It matters today because the oil shock is pushing inflation risk back into the macro conversation. Current probability: no cuts is 34.7%. • Bitcoin & Stablecoins: This market is about whether Bitcoin hits $80,000 in April. It matters today because Strategy’s latest purchase adds to the bullish supply absorption story. Current probability: 41.5% yes. • AI / Frontier Models: This market is about which company has the best AI model at the end of April. It matters today because Amazon’s deeper commitment to Anthropic reinforces the market’s view that model leadership is concentrating. Current probability: Anthropic 92.5%. Watchlist: • Whether the ceasefire holds through the next Hormuz deadline, because another visible slippage likely feeds straight into oil and shipping premiums. • Whether DeFi outflows stall. This matters for rates and underlying blockchains. • Whether stablecoin oversight hardens into globally coordinated rules, because the BIS has now made fragmentation the core policy concern. • Whether AI capex commitments keep accelerating from here, because the Amazon Anthropic deal raises the bar for hyperscaler funded model competition.

LNMS Episode 106 with Bob Elliot & Aahan from Prometheus We talk about: -Why Hormuz is not “partly closed”. It still IS a chokepoint. Full stop -Why equities are still pricing denial and for how long -Why predicting the war is not possible and where real edge lies -Why your typical 60/40 portfolio is priced for peace and disinflation -How not to trade macro ideas Spotify:

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Markets Are Still Pricing “No Problem”

Less Noise, More Signal · Episode

Apple:

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Markets Are Still Pricing “No Problem”

Podcast Episode · Less Noise, More Signal · 20 April · 1hr 11min

Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/2wnwvwjy Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4sbv239u

New joint episode idea: When @Michael Saylor + Bonnie Blue on LNMS? 😅 Or is this too much of a strech? You tell me...

LNMS Daily Briefing April 16 Global Macro: • Apr 15: US escalated enforcement in Hormuz with expanded inspections and convoy controls while insurers raised premiums sharply, further restricting tanker supply. This deepens the physical constraint rather than easing it. • Apr 15: Brent crude pushed toward ~$104 with front month spreads widening, signaling continued tightness in prompt supply despite diplomatic noise. Market structure confirms real scarcity. • Apr 15: US real yields moved higher alongside breakevens, reflecting simultaneous tightening in financial conditions and rising inflation expectations from energy shock. Bitcoin & Stablecoins: • Apr 15: Regional trade flows increasingly settling in USD stablecoins rather than BTC as intermediaries prioritize liquidity and price stability. This reinforces stablecoins as the dominant transactional layer. • Apr 15: No major ETF or on chain shift observed, with BTC holding range despite macro stress, suggesting limited leverage and no forced positioning unwind. AI / Frontier Models: • Apr 15: Amazon expanded Bedrock enterprise integrations with new agent based workflow tools and early enterprise adoption signals across logistics and customer operations. This points to deeper real world deployment. • Apr 15: TSMC flagged sustained AI chip demand strength into late 2026 with capacity remaining tight despite expansion efforts. This supports continued capex intensity and pricing power. Polymarket Signal: • Global Macro: Will the US enter a permanent peace deal with Iran before April 30? Current probability 39 percent. • AI / Frontier Models: Will Nvidia remain the largest company in market cap by end of 2026. This ties to ongoing supply constraints and demand concentration. Current probability 70 percent. Watchlist • Actual tanker throughput versus convoy capacity in Hormuz • Pass through of energy into core inflation and Fed response • Whether stablecoin settlement expands into formal trade agreements

LNMS Daily Briefing April 15 Follow us on Fountain:

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Global Macro: • Apr 14: US expanded naval enforcement in Hormuz with partial convoy system as insurance costs spike and tanker availability tightens. This confirms the disruption is shifting from headline risk to sustained logistics constraint. • Apr 14: Brent crude held near $102 with backwardation steepening as physical supply tightens despite diplomatic signaling. Market structure indicates real scarcity, not just geopolitical premium. • Apr 14: US yields pushed higher with 10y approaching ~4.6% as markets reprice inflation risk from energy shock and delayed Fed easing. This tightens financial conditions into a supply driven inflation impulse. Bitcoin & Stablecoins: • Apr 14: Stablecoin usage tied to commodity settlement continues to expand in Middle East flows, with USD stablecoins dominating over BTC in reported transactions. This reinforces stablecoins as the default rails for sanctioned trade. • Apr 14: Bitcoin held range despite macro stress, with derivatives positioning stable and no major liquidation cascade. Lack of reflexivity suggests positioning is not yet crowded or structurally leveraged. AI / Frontier Models: • Apr 14: Microsoft expanded enterprise Copilot integrations across finance and operations workflows with early enterprise deployment data showing measurable productivity gains. This is real usage scaling, not just model iteration. • Apr 13 to 14: Nvidia supply chain signals point to continued GPU tightness into 2H 2026 as hyperscaler demand remains above expectations. This sustains pricing power and capex intensity across AI infrastructure. Polymarket Signal: • Global Macro: Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026. This matters as inflation risk rises and easing gets pushed out. Current probability 36 percent. • Bitcoin & Stablecoins: Will stablecoin market cap reach $500b before 2027? Current probability 16 percent. Watchlist: • Physical tanker throughput and insurance availability in Hormuz • Oil driven inflation passing into core data and Fed reaction • Whether stablecoin settlement scales beyond regional use into formal policy

LNMS Daily Briefing April 14 Global Macro • Apr 13: US announced a naval blockade targeting Iranian flows through the Strait of Hormuz after failed talks, with Iran threatening retaliation. • Apr 13: Oil surged above $100 with Brent up ~7% as blockade risk hit a chokepoint handling ~20% of global supply. • Apr 13: Physical disruption persists with selective vessel access and rising backlog, keeping supply constrained despite ceasefire headlines. Bitcoin & Stablecoins • Apr 12 to 13: Iran’s crypto toll model for Hormuz transit remains active, with ~$1 per barrel fees payable in. • Apr 12 to 13: State level use of crypto for energy settlement expands under sanctions pressure, reinforcing stablecoins as preferred medium over BTC in practice. AI / Frontier Models • No relevant update in last 48h Polymarket Signal • Global Macro: Will oil exceed $120 in April amid Hormuz disruption, reflecting escalation risk in energy markets. This directly tracks the blockade and supply shock. Probability roughly 17%. • Global Macro: Will there be a permanent peace deal between US and Iran by end of May? Probability roughly 44 percent yes. • Bitcoin & Stablecoins: Will Bitcoin reach $100k in 2026. This links to emerging sovereign crypto flows. Probability roughly 37 percent yes. Watchlist • Actual ship throughput and insurance availability in Hormuz • Oil staying above $100 and second order inflation impact • Whether crypto settlement moves from edge case to enforced standard in trade Thanks for following us on Fountain:

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Episode 105 with Ben Kizemchuk YT: We talk about: -Even a definite ceasefire may not stop equity market from correcting -The consumer is not strong, real income/wages are hurting -What we just saw may be the first real bear market rally -How passive flows alter markets and make them more fragile -Why stagnating tech giants is your real signal 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/3u9u6ct3 🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/3f2d94vm 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/mr38ua2t 🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/4frrw5sx

LNMS Daily Research Briefing April 13 Global Macro: • Apr 12: US preparing sustained naval protection and partial blockade response around Hormuz while metals and energy markets react with higher spreads and volatility. • Apr 11 to 12: Oil remains structurally bid near $95 to $100 despite ceasefire headlines as physical flows stay constrained and backlog persists. • Apr 12: KKR revised macro outlook, cutting growth expectations and raising 10 year yield forecast to 4.5 percent due to energy driven inflation and geopolitical risk. Bitcoin & Stablecoins: • Apr 12: European banks and corporates are actively selecting partners for stablecoin infrastructure as adoption shifts from planning to execution. • Apr 11 to 12: US stablecoin legislation enters critical phase with CLARITY Act pressure rising as policymakers frame it as strategic financial infrastructure. • Apr 12: Telegram outlined plans to scale crypto payments globally, signaling renewed push toward real world transactional use cases. AI / Frontier Models: • Apr 12: No major new frontier model releases or pricing changes reported in last 48 hours, with focus remaining on infrastructure and enterprise rollout. Polymarket Signal: • Bet: Will the Strait of Hormuz be fully reopened by April end, tied to global energy flows and Iran conflict dynamics? This directly maps to current shipping disruption and oil pricing. Probability roughly 13 percent yes. • Will the Fed cut rates before July 2026? This reflects inflation versus growth tradeoff. Relevant after CPI and oil shock repricing. Probability for pause till July roughly 72 percent. • Will the CLARITY Act pass the Senate in 2026? This ties to current legislative push and crypto regulation. This connects to stablecoin and market structure developments. Probability roughly 60 percent yes. Watchlist: • Actual ship throughput in Hormuz versus headline ceasefire progress • March PPI release and pass through of energy into core inflation • Stablecoin legislation outcome and impact on banking system competition Follow LNMS: 🎧 Fountain:

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I’ve made it my mission to bring clarity to a world saturated with noise. LNMS curates the smartest ideas in macro, finance, and Bitcoin — reve...

LNMS Episode 104 with @Jestopher from @Amboss YT: We talk about: -Why Lightning may be far bigger than it looks. -How everyone is looking at it the wrong way! -Why AI agents may end up choosing Lightning simply because the incentives are better -Why stablecoins on Bitcoin could become one of the biggest unlocks for Lightning -How Bitcoin may evolve from digital gold into a yield-bearing asset. -Why Lightning could grow from a payments network into a full Bitcoin-native financial layer. 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/ae2vp6ps 🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/2s42yepa 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/mr2zdx4n 🎧Rumble:tinyurl.com/3hun7pyj

New LNMS report just dropped! Topic: What is REALLY driving the Bitcoin price? This question seems more important than ever! Download the report now: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/report A huge thank you to all the contributors🔥💪🏻🙏 Please consider retweeting if you like it!

LNMS Episode 103 YT: We talk about: -Why almost every macro framework used is outdated -How fiscal flows are the missing driver every investor needs -How markets obsess over the wrong things (like the Fed) -How you better explain what drives stocks, bubbles and bitcoin -MMT versus Austrian Economics -Why endorsing a gold standard, is endorsing big goverment 🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/tawjd49n 🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/3p2jjka4 🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/3tnamvmw 🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/3ay7vccm

Less Noise More Signal is now also on @Fountain Check us out🤝🙏

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Okay, now things get serious. What should I answer? And would you watch an LNMS episode of me interviewing Sydney on her views on Bitcoin? Better subscribe to the show, you never know it might happen some day! 🙏 🙃 https://youtube.com/@lessnoisemoresignalpodcast?si=BcJgPuHU_u16p---

Latest episode with Globalflows & Michael Howell Topics: -Why cross-border capital flows matter so much for liquidity -Why hardly any investor is focused on them -Where the marginal liquidity is coming from right now -What the major macro risks are in 2026 -Are liquidity spigots really drying up? -What is really driving the Bitcoin price -Whether or not more cuts will be priced in forward curve?

Latest LNMS newsletter is out:

Ending QT won't do much & why almost everyone misreads what's happening in financial plumbing

From repo drama to Bitcoin signals, gold’s rally, QT's ineffectiveness and inflation’s next move. Here's your curated dose of signal!

➡️Are bank reserves really scarce? ➡️Fascinating case study of BTC's real-time price changes to recent plumbing changes ➡️Why investors should pay attention to rumors around gov' shutdown ending and Nov 5 Supreme Court tariff decision ➡️Gold's rally as a structural change and how to really think about the gold–Bitcoin “catch-up” trade. ➡️Why the end of quantitative tightening (QT) won’t make any material difference ➡️A fresh look at inflation

#asknostr Is there a free schedulinh software for Nostr?

You wanna tell me the economy is weak? Well, bank earnings tell a different story!

Here's my talk with Infranomics: Prepare for a bunch of interesting charts with this one: -Understanding TIPS auctions and how it helps get a read on inflation -The silent depression thesis -Why the average person feels so left behind -How government spending, financial assets and corporate profits are outperforming GDP -The importance of adjusting the denominator!