What I am describing is chain reorts + changes in cap limits.
You ar correct that this is a de facto hard fork. Yes, those who use knots won't be affected. But the media will continue to call the core Bitcoin, Bitcoin. KYC institutions will only accept core Bitcoin. The knots Bitcoin value will drop.
It won't help to use knots. If the demand for knots Bitcoin will drop, the value will drop.
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That's a political discussion. No idea what Bitcoin users will agree on consensus in the future. But what is for sure is that there is no technical obligation however the pressure from big players. People may leave the chain on political pressure yes, but will there always be a cluster of maxis to defend bitcoin as money til the end ? Will they be enough ? I sure hope so.