China Morning Missive So, it would appear as though I’m kicking off my work week with yet another “Xi Jinping coup” rumor. It never seems to end. Just last week the rumor mill was convinced that the man had suffered a stroke. The latest culling or a purge, or whatever it might be called, among higher ups in the Chinese military over the weekend has certainly fanned the flames. There’s also the timing of all this chatter to consider. There’s a rather big conclave happening at the end of this week, the so-called 4th Plenum and then, of course, there’s the APEC meeting the following week and an expected bilateral meeting with President Trump. A recipe with a handful of simple ingredients allowing for the imagination to run wild. Let me start here by making the following important statement. No one knows shit about fuck and that includes me. With that point out of the way, the question of Xi being removed by others in the Party has been asked of me for years. What follows is how I answer that question. Is it possible that Xi could be removed from power? Absolutely. No question and even more probable than some might think. In fact, there’s even a rationale for his removal, but it has almost nothing to do with power or politics. It’s all about money. A sharp fissure within the party occurred back in 2017 when Xi Jinping threw down the gauntlet stating that the Chinese economy would “shift from growth at all costs to quality growth.” This decision would reverberate far and wide threatening the “alternative sources of income” for millions of Party members, aka soft corruption. That decision resulted in genuine tension throughout the Party remaining very much present even after reaching a crescendo in 2022. Many won’t recall, but at that time there were also widespread rumors of a coup attempt. So, yes, it is certainly well within the realm of possibility that a change in Party leadership could occur. Do I, personally, believe that such an outcome will take place? The short answer is no. No matter what conflict might exist within the Party, nor how intense that conflict might be, there are two critical variables that need to be taken into account. First, the Communist Party of China abhors instability. There’s been no positive outcome over 5,000 years when there’s strife. Above all else, consistency must prevail. Removing Xi from power, even if meaningfully done with a degree of subterfuge, will knowingly run the risk of system instability. Second, real or imagined internal difference aside, the entire Party is operating under the premise of “changes unseen in 100 years.” The Party sees clearly that the post-WWII world order is breaking and in China’s favor. Beijing can gain real credibility just by standing still, doing nothing. Ousting Xi would be the opposite of that tactic and would be viewed as highly counterproductive. Who knows in the end though. For now, I’ll just leave this here and let you all arrive at your own conclusions. Do, however, hit me up with any questions or feel free (its encouraged actually) to press me on any of the points raised above.