Can you even imagine if the American bond market blew up while Trump was in China. Oh the irony.
Peter Alexander
npub1yy3u...kawc
China 30 year veteran
Joined Nostr at block 777177
A word of unsolicited advice on this week’s events in China.
In advance of this week’s meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, my strong suggestion is that you ignore all commentary that will invariably be flooding traditional and social media.
It is a fluid situation and no one, including myself, has a clue what to expect.
The only point that I would share is how the last minute meeting in Seoul between Sec Bessent and He Lifeng plays into the expectations for the Xi-Trump summit.
To the point, if such a meeting is being held this close to the Beijing summit, then means many of the key issues haven’t yet been finalized. Even if the parties can come to some sort of tacit agreement in Seoul, whatever is agreed to would still need to be vetted by Xi and his team. There simply isn’t enough time for whatever issues are being hammered out to be agreed to by the principals.
Moreover, based upon the disclosed itinerary it does appear to be nothing more than a series of performative photo-ops.
So much noise out there with ongoing events so allow me to provide a genuine piece of signal.
The China-Iran railway is still fully operational and the mere fact that this piece of infrastructure has been untouched tells me everything I need to know in terms of where escalatory dominance resides; Beijing.
Trump and Bessent are truly heading headlong into a buzz saw next week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/iran-turns-to-china-rail-link-to-try-to-bypass-us-blockade
I’d say this was perfectly timed.
No we need to see how it performs and what the feedback is from the community.
At first glance it would seem that this new model is undercutting the Americans on pricing. Perhaps aggressively so.
CNBC
China's DeepSeek releases preview of long-awaited V4 model as AI race intensifies
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has released a preview version of its long awaited V4 large language model.
Again I state emphatically; American software is useless without Chinese hardware. The entire rare earths issue was nothing but the tip of a Titanic-sized iceberg.
“The company makes printed circuit boards, which form the intricate electronic backbone of AI servers.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/nvidia-supplier-victory-giant-set-for-debut-after-biggest-hk-listing-this-year
Downtown Shanghai and it guts me every time these entire city blocks of old 石库门, traditional lane houses from the late 19th century, are taken down.
More evidence of MacKinder’s revenge. And this is the world’s second largest gas field.
Long before there was Belt and Road there were the numerous Central Asian energy projects.
Make no mistake, the Eurasian land mass is in play, has been for 30 years, and it’s already been sown up by China and Russia.
Turkmenportal
Turkmenistan intends to increase natural gas supplies to China
Turkmen natural gas supplies to the Chinese market have already exceeded 462 billion cubic meters, and these volumes a
I have an unhealthy obsession over why it is so many people feel compelled to do podcasts with as many books as possible as their background.
A subconscious “appeal to authority” vibe if there ever was one.
This has been perhaps one of the more noticeable trend shifts I’ve seen here in Shanghai over that past few years.
Used to be a clamoring of students descending on China year in and year out. That appears to be over.
And yet, there are a multitude more people today weighing in on all things China. Quite the dichotomy.
I’d like for you to watch this short clip and then consider just how widely this one example can be applied across all industries.
In addition, what China has done to low value add intermediate goods over the past 30 years is now being replicated with precious parts and value add machinery. The Germans in particular are seeing their production base being eviscerated in real time.
Check out this video, "exposing rolex made in china short" https://share.google/RjSNSlNcrINE2odg0
China Morning Missive
Making sure that @npub1a2cw...w83a sees this. A significant shift and on that’s been a decade in the making.
In 2012, the Obama administration - for the very first time - weaponizes SWIFT and unironically does so against Iran.
In 2012, Beijing sees this move as an existential threat and tasks the PBoC to build an alternative. Three years late CIPS goes live.
For over a decade, there is scant adoption among global banks. That was never the primary objective. The critical aim was building a system that would provide Chinese banks a messaging and settlement network for trade denominated in Renminbi. And not just an alternative system to SWIFT, but a system that operated completely outside the New York correspondent banking network. Zero visibility to transactions and zero asymmetric advantage for Treasury
And yet people are out there today scrambling to come up with ideas as to how the Hormuz toll is being paid.
If you want evidence, see below.
South China Morning Post
Conflict catalyst: China’s yuan settlements hit record amid Middle East tensions
Single-day transactions via China’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System surge past 1 trillion yuan as Beijing’s moves to expand the yuan-paym...
China Evening Missive
No longer optional. It is imperative that CEOs of every single serious multinational travel to China at least annually. Recall last year when the Ford CEO was here. He left with a Xiaomi car and raved online about the quality.
All companies irrespective of industry need to have an office in China if for no other reason than opposition research. The future of global competition begins here. In China.
Starbucks is the perfect case study of what will happen if you aren’t close enough to this market.
Motor1.com
Honda President After Visiting Chinese Auto Supplier: 'We Have No Chance Against This'
Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe issued this blunt assessment after a visit to a Shanghai auto supplier factory operated by a major Chinese parts manufactu...
Can’t imagine any of this is going down well among the breathless proponents of the “Aggression towards Iran is really about the US targeting China” theory.
There is little direct level logic behind China even lifting a finger to assist in any negotiations. There is, however, tremendous second order benefits that will flow in Beijing’s direction from their actions.
Quoting from the linked article.
“ The US president also indicated that China may have played a role in facilitating the negotiations. When asked whether Beijing had been involved in bringing Iran to the negotiating table, Trump responded, “I hear yes.” “
Trump Tells AFP he Believes China Got Iran to Negotiate
Trump Tells AFP he Believes China Got Iran to Negotiate
Trump says US achieved “total and complete victory” after agreeing a two-week ceasefire with Iran, noting uranium will be handled and suggestin...
Back in the day the theory went that if China became an economic actor engaged commercially with the West, then the country would ultimately evolve into a liberal democratic society.
It was naive but that was the thinking.
Not only did that trajectory fail to materialize, it is increasing clear that Europe and the United States are the ones who shifted in terms of state governance and have become more like the Chinese system.
Exhibit A ….. VPNs
MSN
You may not like the message, but after last Monday’s social media post by President Trump the entire calculus fundamentally changed.
Oh, and just now we have China going back into retaliation mode. Investigation into US trade practices.
I would add that throughout this week have had a number of conversations. The through line is a conviction that Trump bluffed on Monday with his post about “constrictive talks with Iran”.
My takeaway from those meetings was an interest for the Chinese to press the advantage. This move here, late on a Friday afternoon before American markets open, is a perfect example.
bloomingbit
China's Ministry of Commerce: "Launching trade probes related to the U.S.…suspected disruption of global supply chains"
The Chinese government is reported to be launching two separate investigations into U.S. trade practices in response to U.S. probes targeting China. A
Well, it would appear as though Japanese investors yeeted out of the JFB 10Y at the end of Asian trading.
Anyone out there remember the massive popularity of the Datsun B210 from the 1980s?
Demand was a complete response to the oil shock of the 1970s.
Same thing hold here. Only question is how long the American domestic moat can hold before the proverbial damn breaks.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/some-us-car-buyers-envy-what-they-cannot-have-affordable-chinese-evs-2026-03-23/
Quick note. If the nexus to any talks is Islamabad then know that there are Chinese fingerprints all over that decision.
And given recent reports of Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, reaching out to Tehran that makes the movement now being discussed all the more credible.
Yahoo News
Pakistan positioning itself as intermediary in US-Israel-Iran tensions
Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Chief of Defense Forces, called US President Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss the Iran crisis and offered mediation, acco...