Orphaning blocks the majority of miners recognize for its economic incentive will result in a chain split from the minority. The debate was over when over 50% of hash rate was in favor of higher OP_Returns. I do not see a world where this doesn't end with 2 chains. Tread the waters carefully because your PoW is stored on the chain that has the hashrate consensus.
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Not really.
One can run Core 29 and stay in consensus indefinitely, or at least until they stop supporting it