Not necessarily.
Chain splitting will only occur if the minority enforces new rules that the majority rejects.
If the majority enforces the new rules, the minority can still use the old rules
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Orphaning blocks the majority of miners recognize for its economic incentive will result in a chain split from the minority. The debate was over when over 50% of hash rate was in favor of higher OP_Returns. I do not see a world where this doesn't end with 2 chains. Tread the waters carefully because your PoW is stored on the chain that has the hashrate consensus.