I think that the analysis, while accurate, misses a huge component of what has been going on. We have seen 3 straight years of a decrease in M2. This is for dollars, not all fiat. However, all fiat has followed a similar contraction or very modest expansion trend. We are down somewhere between 5-10% since the peak of COVID. Bitcoin has STILL 3-4x’d since then depending on what you pick as your starting point. That can almost all be attributed to adoption growth and not excess liquidity. #bitcoin was created to protect us from currency debasement. If they are not debasing the currency, we don’t need an alternative like Bitcoin.
Your analysis only holds for a short blip on the radar of the total money supply, and only will be accurate going forward if you think debasement is stopping or slowing significantly. Otherwise, it’s game on as usual.
