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This is the big question at the moment. It can be a self fulfilling prophecy in a way, but I don't think it's nearly as revant for a few reasons. 1. Approximately 3.4M coins were sold over the last 12 months. That's around 20X what was mined. So the reward schedule is much less important than the supply and demand in the market. 2. The new enterants to the market are big money wallstreet types. They don't give a shit about Bitcoin lore, but it looks like they are trying to trade for profit on small moves instead of buying and holding. They might also be attempting to exhaust holders into selling more. 3. Geopolitics and global finance are in a different position than any other time in bitcoins history. Gold is sky rocketing and the fed is preparing to lower rates. Bitcoin hasn't been around long enough to see how it will react under these conditions regardless of the halving cycle. If we don't have a massive sell off by the end of Q1 2026 I think it'll be safe to say we are in a new paradigm and the four year cycles are no longer the primary driver.

Agree. I have been thinking along these lines as well.