Thanks for clarifying. I understand that the fee estimation uses past block data and there is an ability to self-correct with RBF/CPFP. If the concern is not about the initial estimate failing there is still a worse reaction time. If a node is blind to a large segment of the real mempool, wouldn't it be slower to detect a sudden spike in the fee market, potentially causing it to fall behind in a fee-bumping war? On the other points we are also left with the problem that the network communication is breaking down because more nodes are rejecting the very transactions that miners are confirming in blocks. Here is the problem visualized: "In early June we were requesting less than 10kB per block were we needed to request something (about 40-50% of blocks) on average. Currently, we are requesting close to 800kB of transactions on average for 70% (30% of the blocks need no requests) of the blocks." image from this research thread:

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Super Testnet's avatar
Super Testnet 3 months ago
> If a node is blind to a large segment of the real mempool, wouldn't it be slower to detect a sudden spike in the fee market, potentially causing it to fall behind in a fee-bumping war? A fee-bumping war? I think I need more context. I am not aware of any real-world software that requires users to competitively bump their fees. Are you saying there *is* such a protocol? Are you perhaps referring to the LN attack where the perp repeatedly RBF's an input to a tx that creates old state? Even there, the would-be victim doesn't have to repeatedly RBF anything. Instead, he is expected to repeatedly modify his justice tx to use the txid of whatever transaction the perp creates after *he* (the perp) performs an RBF. The victim *does* have to set feerate each time, but his feerate does not compete with his opponent's, as his opponent is RBF'ing the input to the justice transaction's *parent,* whereas the victim simply sets the feerate of the justice transaction *itself,* and he is expected to simply set it to whatever the going rates are. Moreover, as mentioned above, I think it's absurd to expect a real-world scenario where Knots reports a too-low feerate for 2016 blocks in a row, despite getting information about the current rates from each of those blocks *as well as* its mempool. For that to happen, spam transactions would have to be broadcast at a completely absurd, constantly-increasing rate, for 2016 blocks in a row, with bursts of *yet further* increased speed right after each block gets mined (otherwise the fee estimator would know the new rate because it shows up in the most recent block), and the mempool would *also* have to go practically unused by anything else (otherwise the fee estimator would know the new rate when it shows up in the non-spam transactions that compete for blockspace with the spam transactions). > On the other points we are also left with the problem that the network communication is breaking down because more nodes are rejecting the very transactions that miners are confirming in blocks. This communication problem can be summarized as, "compact blocks are delayed when users have to download more transactions." I think driving down that delay is a worthwhile goal, but Core's strategy to achieve that goal is, I think, worse than the disease: Core's users opt to relay spam transactions as if they were normal transactions, that way they don't have to download them when they show up in blocks. If you want to do that, have at it, but it looks to me like a huge number of former Core users are saying "This isn't worth it," and they are opting for software that simply doesn't do that. I expect this trend to continue.