Based on CPI $20 in 1899 would worth ~$700 today.
Which is NONSENSE.
It would worth ~$36k.
- US was in gold standard back then.
- So we can easily know that $20 means 0.97 once of gold.
- Then we need to apply gold inflation. We can't know the exact number but gold supply above ground back then was around ~772 million once.
- So 0.97 once is like 0.0000000126% of the total supply back then.
- If we apply the same % on today's gold supply which is ~7 billion once of gold, we get 8.74 once.
- And based on the today's market price it would worth ~$36k
First of all basket goods in CPI keeps changing. And second of all if you compare what everyday products you can buy, you also include how much cheaper those everyday products are today. How much of it we mass produce today. The automation etc. So its a horrible metric. It doesn't calculate what was the actual value of $20 was.
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people used to buy boots and clothes back then once and wear it for 4 generations.
I agree with the CPI being the CPLie. ShadowStats shows this just by using prior CPI formulas. Around 40% of the prices used are "estimates." Hedonic adjustments are a joke. Items are swapped out for other items like the classic replacement of steak with ground beef, or even removed like coffee more recently. Etc.
I don't know if calculating the inflation of the above ground stock is necessary, though. Roughly the same quality of goods should be available today for roughly the same quantity of gold as at any given time in history. I'd be interested to see any data showing otherwise.