Between P2PK and P2TR addresses combined, there's about 4.15 million BTC. Not sure where you get the 30-50% number from.
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Not that I'm opposed to some new softfork to make a new address type. It'll probably have to be done eventually, and may as well be worked on sooner rather than later (though, frankly, CTV and CSFS seem a far bigger priority). It'd also not do any harm to have as long as it's done without opening the door for more inscription nonsense. Might be nice to see something used even less than taproot for a change :-D.
All right, it did occur to me I should be including reused addresses which use a hash rather than exposed pubkey. Don't have those numbers in front of me but it does seem likely we'd at least get in your range.