mister_monster's avatar
mister_monster 7 months ago
Man what a discussion you guys are having. Youre not wrong you know, if your investment can't outperform a savings account it is not a worthwhile investment. But there's a problem with hard cap currency, it's worth noting no such currency existed in the world, ever, except bitcoin. That problem is this: I want to invest in some worthwhile endeavor, so I take capital and put it towards that endeavor. That leads to economic growth, which leads to increased value of the currency, because now more items chasing the same money, the opposite problem of monetary debasement. I can siphon some of the wealth from what you create via this process simply by holding currency. This is the exact inverse of the cantillion effect. So more people catch on to this. Hey, I don't have to produce anything with my sweat and imagination and capital, I can just get a little piece of what everyone else does by holding the money they want for it. What we have here is a very interesting tragedy of the commons, one of two particular ones caused by a hard cap supply currency, the other I've spoken about and you can find in my public bookmarks if you want. What this inevitably leads to is a stagnation of economic output, artificially, you can say that it is self regulating and that would be true more often than not, output stagnates so the money stops climbing in value so the people look for other avenues to gain wealth and start investing again. But it suppresses economic exploration, it has the exact opposite effect as fiat debasement has, where fiat debasement incentivizes valueless investment just to have somewhere to pur capital that doesn't lose value, this has the effect of people not creating as many amazing things as they otherwise would've. The self regulation regulates lower than natural and optimal, just like a continuous percentage of supply self regulates higher than optimal. Ideally, the concept of supply pacing exactly with growth of economic output is ideal, money never loses or gains purchasing power, the only way to gain wealth is to create it, and deciding not to participate costs you nothing. Of course, that's impossible. Behind that, a self regulating supply increase, that is, when the money goes up in value people produce more of it, otherwise they invest elsewhere, is fantastic. It can't be optimal all the time, but it is most optimal IMO. Gold has this property. The other one, algorithmic linear debasement, a flat amount every x periods of time, is also fantastic, it can't be optimal all the time, it smooths the effect a capped supply has and allows graceful reorganizing of the market indefinitely, but it still does downregulate economic production a little bit.

Replies (11)

You’re right, a hard cap introduces new dynamics like passive rent-seeking where some benefit without contributing. But that’s not unique to Bitcoin, fiat has its own version with the Cantillon effect. The difference is Bitcoin’s version gets better over time. As the market matures and price stabilizes the free ride shrinks. People will have to innovate to earn returns not just hold. This redirects capital toward real value creation not just financialization. It’s a good thing for the system overall and for the average person even if a few lazy ones ride the wave for a while. Progress isn’t perfect but it’s directional. Bitcoin raises the bar and that’s a feature not a flaw.
mister_monster's avatar
mister_monster 7 months ago
> As the market matures and price stabilizes the free ride shrinks. How does that work out? I thought we established that as economic output goes up so must the purchasing power of a supply capped currency? The only outcome in that case is downward pressure on economic production. It's cool to me that we can even attempt to experiment with a supply capped currency, this was impossible two decades ago, but that is not a problem you can hand waive away. The supply cap dooms bitcoin IMO, and it's not a dichotomy between hard cap and let Jerome Powell decide.
a hard cap in the number of monetary units will not *only stop fiat speculation it will also effectively prevent capital allocation to innovative projects unless return is practically guaranteed. #bitcoin
mister_monster's avatar mister_monster
Man what a discussion you guys are having. Youre not wrong you know, if your investment can't outperform a savings account it is not a worthwhile investment. But there's a problem with hard cap currency, it's worth noting no such currency existed in the world, ever, except bitcoin. That problem is this: I want to invest in some worthwhile endeavor, so I take capital and put it towards that endeavor. That leads to economic growth, which leads to increased value of the currency, because now more items chasing the same money, the opposite problem of monetary debasement. I can siphon some of the wealth from what you create via this process simply by holding currency. This is the exact inverse of the cantillion effect. So more people catch on to this. Hey, I don't have to produce anything with my sweat and imagination and capital, I can just get a little piece of what everyone else does by holding the money they want for it. What we have here is a very interesting tragedy of the commons, one of two particular ones caused by a hard cap supply currency, the other I've spoken about and you can find in my public bookmarks if you want. What this inevitably leads to is a stagnation of economic output, artificially, you can say that it is self regulating and that would be true more often than not, output stagnates so the money stops climbing in value so the people look for other avenues to gain wealth and start investing again. But it suppresses economic exploration, it has the exact opposite effect as fiat debasement has, where fiat debasement incentivizes valueless investment just to have somewhere to pur capital that doesn't lose value, this has the effect of people not creating as many amazing things as they otherwise would've. The self regulation regulates lower than natural and optimal, just like a continuous percentage of supply self regulates higher than optimal. Ideally, the concept of supply pacing exactly with growth of economic output is ideal, money never loses or gains purchasing power, the only way to gain wealth is to create it, and deciding not to participate costs you nothing. Of course, that's impossible. Behind that, a self regulating supply increase, that is, when the money goes up in value people produce more of it, otherwise they invest elsewhere, is fantastic. It can't be optimal all the time, but it is most optimal IMO. Gold has this property. The other one, algorithmic linear debasement, a flat amount every x periods of time, is also fantastic, it can't be optimal all the time, it smooths the effect a capped supply has and allows graceful reorganizing of the market indefinitely, but it still does downregulate economic production a little bit.
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But you are contributing. Helping stabilize the price by not being a lousy paper hands, becoming more invested in the network because your savings depend on it, giving credibility and social proof to the system so more risk-averse others can also make use of it in time, etc.
Mister monster put it eloquently in this post.
mister_monster's avatar mister_monster
Man what a discussion you guys are having. Youre not wrong you know, if your investment can't outperform a savings account it is not a worthwhile investment. But there's a problem with hard cap currency, it's worth noting no such currency existed in the world, ever, except bitcoin. That problem is this: I want to invest in some worthwhile endeavor, so I take capital and put it towards that endeavor. That leads to economic growth, which leads to increased value of the currency, because now more items chasing the same money, the opposite problem of monetary debasement. I can siphon some of the wealth from what you create via this process simply by holding currency. This is the exact inverse of the cantillion effect. So more people catch on to this. Hey, I don't have to produce anything with my sweat and imagination and capital, I can just get a little piece of what everyone else does by holding the money they want for it. What we have here is a very interesting tragedy of the commons, one of two particular ones caused by a hard cap supply currency, the other I've spoken about and you can find in my public bookmarks if you want. What this inevitably leads to is a stagnation of economic output, artificially, you can say that it is self regulating and that would be true more often than not, output stagnates so the money stops climbing in value so the people look for other avenues to gain wealth and start investing again. But it suppresses economic exploration, it has the exact opposite effect as fiat debasement has, where fiat debasement incentivizes valueless investment just to have somewhere to pur capital that doesn't lose value, this has the effect of people not creating as many amazing things as they otherwise would've. The self regulation regulates lower than natural and optimal, just like a continuous percentage of supply self regulates higher than optimal. Ideally, the concept of supply pacing exactly with growth of economic output is ideal, money never loses or gains purchasing power, the only way to gain wealth is to create it, and deciding not to participate costs you nothing. Of course, that's impossible. Behind that, a self regulating supply increase, that is, when the money goes up in value people produce more of it, otherwise they invest elsewhere, is fantastic. It can't be optimal all the time, but it is most optimal IMO. Gold has this property. The other one, algorithmic linear debasement, a flat amount every x periods of time, is also fantastic, it can't be optimal all the time, it smooths the effect a capped supply has and allows graceful reorganizing of the market indefinitely, but it still does downregulate economic production a little bit.
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Well if everyone holds the currency since we are assuming this is the dominant currency to have control over the economy. Then everyone would get this effect meaning it would raise standard of living. Like you said no other currency has a hard cap so all we are saying all of us is theoretical because none of us have a crystal ball we can only make assumptions from our own understandings of economics and how we perceive the future will look.
mister_monster's avatar
mister_monster 7 months ago
You can't increase standard of living with numbers, you can only increase standard of living with production and economic growth. Numbers are how we measure that, once a metric becomes a goal it ceases to be a good metric. But since it's an adversarial system, that doesnt mean people will go "better not do that", they'll still do it and you get suppression of economic growth. You can't number massage your way out of these kinds of problems.