What if the "official" exchange price of Bitcoin isn't connected to reality.
(I'm thinking through stuff for my next article, a follow up to my 2020 IR Theory piece)
Think about it, if nation states want to actually acquire bitcoins, why would they do it via participating in the, let's face it, amateur spot market? The United States is signaling possible future acquisition activity, but that doesn't mean others have to do so as well.
The spot exchange rates are dominated by liquidity from the United States, and much of the activity today is derivatives based.
Game theory suggests players (G20 as a standing) would do their acquiring in secret (think Manhattan project) and would not be revealed until ready). The spot market, and the derivatives markets, are fairly transparent and don't lend themselves to secretly building a large position.
What I'm saying is, the US dominated spot market, especially if major players are fractionally reserving, may not give the full picture. Basically, a lot of people -think- they're buying or owning Bitcoin, but they aren't really. The spot price is driven by exchange activity, nation state adoption would likely not be. Off exchange activity likely. Therefore, I don't think it's likely -at this stage- we would see spot price movements that would show potential secret nation state acquisition activities.
What we DO SEE is a massively high hash rate that keeps expanding. I think nations are mining and beginning to do so at much greater scale. No data to back this though.
I think everyone who is an individual holder needs to be EXTREMELY cautious going forward and always withdraw to a real Bitcoin wallet you control. And keep your opsec tight, the US could use critical asset forfeiture as a key acquisition strategy.
This is just a thought dump, not a thesis. Things are getting spicy.