There is now an 85% chance of a September rate cut on Polymarket. Many are underestimating the effect this will have on #Bitcoin and other scarce assets. Stack accordingly. image

Replies (21)

Mr. Sat Stacker's avatar
Mr. Sat Stacker 7 months ago
I keep thinking of this character tho....when they cut rates, it appears they are behind the curve and we experience a recession. Those aren't usually good for risk on assets... but maybe this time will be different. image
Chris's avatar
Chris 7 months ago
That’s still not “printing money”. Printing money is an increase in the Federal Reserve’s nominal balance sheet size. You are conflating 2 different things. 1. The Fed lowers the target Fed funds rate HOPING to stimulate PRIVATE loan demand. 2. The Fed engages in QE by purchasing assets (usually govt and mtg bonds) with freshly minted (digital) money supply thereby directly injecting it into the economy. (There is a nuance here but it’s not meaningful to this discussion so I won’t go into it) Also, loan creation has typically DECREASED at the beginning of periods where the Fed lowers rates. Why? Because we tend to be at the beginning of a contraction in the economy and people are scared to take out new loans. At any rate. Initially. Look at 2001 and 2008/9 as great examples of this. If you don’t believe me, Ask @npub1d3f4...r4xv or @Lyn Alden PS Not trying to be argumentative. Just see lots and lots of Nostriches not versed in the plumbing of finance. PPS ACTUAL “money printing” is coming IMO. In 2026/7 as the AI and CRE bubbles pop creating trillions of losses requiring effective subsidisation/sterilisation.
kyle-moore's avatar
kyle-moore 7 months ago
ig it depends on what you mean by money printing. base layer or layer 2 claims. we could see a rise in liquidity in the housing market if rates come down because of people siting on low rate mortgages no?
Chris's avatar
Chris 7 months ago
Exactly. Lower short term rates CAN induce monetary growth. But it’s not a direct correlation. QE (printing/expansion of feds balance sheet) has a more direct impact. (Again, oversimplified) No need to parse it more than that 🙏🏻😉
Chris's avatar
Chris 7 months ago
It’s more than semantics. One is the road to inevitable hyper-inflationary collapse of a monetary system. One is not. Most don’t understand the difference. Both a match and a flamethrower are “fire”. 🔥
Chris's avatar
Chris 7 months ago
We are most DEFINITELY on the road to hyperinflation. But it won’t be “lower interest rates” that drive that collapse. It will be monetisation of the debt. 💵 💴 💶 🔥
If it aint a free market, then it’s based on coercion. If the entire market is valued on the interest rate set by a cartel it aint free.
The banks print money by expanding their loan books. The create the new money ex nihilo. Out of nothing. My book covers this. Recent Tucker/Werner POD does too. The Fed prints reserves (QE) which aids the banks in printing money. It is all intentionally confusing. Guess why….
kyle-moore's avatar
kyle-moore 7 months ago
so they can nudge the population into acceptance while putting the blinders on. getting them to fiat mine to repay their fiat loans on their fiat products.
Chris's avatar
Chris 7 months ago
🤪🔫 I give up….