Well yea isnt' it obvious?... it's working right now even when the mempool is empty because there is still a block subsidy
1. Using drivechains is optional though. People who don't trust it can completely ignore it. They never have to expose any of their funds to it and can continue using on-chain, lightning, ark, ecash, etc. Bit of irony considering the last three have a lot more trust assumptions than drivechains, but people are still okay with them.
2. You won't literally have to wait 3 months to get your coins if you don't want to. You can swap with other users on-chain or use services like Boltz that there will surely be a market for like every other coin. I think there is even a drivechain for decentralized exchanges already.
3. Honestly, I don't really have a strong opinion on this. It's kind of already shitcoinified isn't that the whole contention with BIP110 vs Core right now? At least with drivechains the incentives push people to do that off the L1. Most people already associate Bitcoin with crypto in general and use them interchangeably.
4. True
I don't think drivechains will likely happen either.
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drivechain is happening in about a month and a half from now. it's just implemented to cause a chain split. core could copy and paste it later, or do covenants instead just to be different. I think you can accomplish merge-mined sidechains using covenants instead of hashrate escrows and some of their properties will be different/better
No, it's not obvious, for a few reasons. Did you know that there have been days of fees far exceeding block rewards? On April 20, 2024, miners earned over $80 million in transaction fees in a single day, far surpassing the $26 million earned from block subsidies. It doesn't matter than this was just a spike in the ordinals craze... The point is that the mining infrastructure THRIVED with all that traffic and payments still go through that day.
But more importantly, bitcoin mining has massively changed in the last 5 years. The big plants like HUT8, Marathon, and Bitdeer are losing ground to the energy companies.
Nowadays, "profitability" isn't as important as simply being available at the source of energy production. Imagine you have an oil well or windfarm or some kind of energy to sell and the grid wants to buy it from you at different rates for the different times of the day. Because the nearby city has a massive solar field already, your energy is only worth a lot to them at nighttime.
So what do you do with the energy that you produce during the day? Bitcoin mining at ANY profitability would be a way to save massive amounts of revenue for you. For this reason alone, bitcoin mining will always have enough miners, and always be attractive in all jurisdictions.
Yea I meant it's likely not happening on BTC. You're talking about Sztorcs Ecash right? Definitely interested in checking it out when it drops
You're talking about exceptional days with a lot of traffic though. I'm hardly surprised they were thriving. Kind of my point that miners will need a lot of traffic to make it worth their time once block subsidy fades away. Not once in a blue moon spikes. Where is all that traffic going to come from if it is expected that most users are going to transact off-chain on lightning, ark, ecash, etc in the future?
I need to think more about your last two paragraphs. Not sure if intermittent mining with excess energy would be enough to offset all the other hashrate that would be lost that would no longer feasible.