Thread - Nostr Hypermedia

Fun back-of-the-napkin #bitcoin gymnastics: Global currencies’ M2 (money supply plus less liquid assets like deposits) guess = $113 trillion USD equivalent 19.7 million #bitcoin in circulation Implied value per circulated #bitcoin = $5.7 million …then again… ~300,000 #bitcoin traded on exchanges around the world (pretend this is all that is available to acquire) Implied value = ~$375 million per traded #bitcoin Somewhat bearish, but even then why sell? Study #bitcoin and have fun. Credit to @SatsMan for the scaled inverted triangle image inspiration scaled to these numbers

Replies (8)

SatsMan 1 year ago

🧡💜

SatsMan 1 year ago

I don’t know where I get that picture 😀

npub13qmz...55wf 1 year ago

I'm afraid it's not that simple. I have seen this type of estimate many times. But is it true that, if an additional trillion dollars of capital gets invested in Bitcoin, then the Bitcoin market cap goes up by the same amount? I do not think it is necessarily so. How the price will react to an additional trillion of capital inflow, depends on liquidity, market depth, willingness of holders to sell. It may go up a lot, or a little, but not necessary by the amount needed to increase Bitcoin market cap by a trillion. At least that's what I think. Happy to discuss.

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modulo 1 year ago

I agree with you and it is impossible to predict. I was having fun going through the mental gymnastics of if the world’s population decided to switch currencies and use #bitcoin instead of their own, how much value would be transferred into #bitcoin I am not thinking of #bitcoin as an investment product

modulo 1 year ago

Main fun objective of the image is the triangle sizes/scales are accurate to each other—worth a think

1 replies ↓

npub13qmz...55wf 1 year ago

Absolutely Thank you And I'm impressed with the triangle relative sizes as well I'm also almost certain that long term price of Bitcoin in USD is going to the moon What I don't know, and I think it's impossible to tell, is how much of this price increase will be just because dollar is being diluted by printing (and Bitcoin keeps the value) OR due to Bitcoin value increase also in real terms (thanks to getting monetary premium for example) Anyway We don't know That's okay Low time preference At least I'm trying to have

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modulo 1 year ago

Appreciate your discussion The concept of if M2 (savings and cash) being converted into #bitcoin having a value of $113tn is a legitimate evaluation starting point as theoretically it should not have more value than that which already exists. A question in my mind does the value become spread across only the trading stores? What about the transactional theory that puts value only st the transaction quantity level—these keep my gears turning Keeping it low👍🏻

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SatsMan 1 year ago

🧡💜🍻